ARU has usually released it a day prior, seeing that they are sort of holding off and there is an early morning video call is interesting, but it could also be a nothing burger, they know there are a lot more eyes on them.
After all the Nolans project is a globally significant NDPR deposit. It is strategically important for critical minerals supply, especially to the EU, US and Australia.
They are mid-construction but heavily dependent on completing final debt and equity financing.
Cash levels are reasonable short-term but tight medium-term, with an estimated 9 months of runway left without new funding.
Progress on off takes has been positive (Hyundai/Kia, Siemens), but as we all know the full coverage remains incomplete.
Funding discussions have been ongoing for months without closure.
The share price has stabilised around 18–21 cents after a long decline, with some cautious accumulation visible but no strong institutional breakout yet.
Then external sector conditions are improving slightly but remain fragile.
Management communication has been steady but slow.
Execution risk remains medium to high due to the funding gap.
The project itself is high quality, but the stock's short-term performance hinges almost entirely on financing success.
In short, the quarterly report, I think will more than likely a nothing burger, but I would be happy to be proven otherwise. Arafura has a world-class asset but carries high risk for now.
When / If funding succeeds, significant upside is possible...
ARU Price at posting:
20.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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