australian stockbrokers - wake up!, page-97

"Bumskins ferreira is not 7$/tonne profit. Your way off. penumbra and dewit are massive"

It's $40/T Profit Margin on Export. $7/T margin on Domestic. Of which Ferriera produces both. It's in the reports & CCC's Presentations.

"Seuss ,the amount of shares a company has is irrellevent .
It is the market cap that is relevent ,and I can tell you that consolidation makes absolutely no difference to the market cap ,or the PE ratio of any earnings ."

This is true from a completely technical point of view. The problem is the impression it can create on the registry.

If a company has billions of shares while still only an explorer it can create the impression that the company is quick to offer more shares, which is dilutionary on current shareholders. If this seems the case people might time their entrance for this time or be turned off entirely. People think "If it has 3 Billion shares now as an explorer, how many is it going to have by the time the mines in production?"

A company like BHP has a proven track record & stable share price, with very little risk of a share raising. So it's slightly different to a small cap (even with a share raising due to its size dilution is much reduced).

Someone also mentioned PNA as an example of having a lot of shares.
Well before the GFC, PNA got to a share price of $1.20. with a market cap from memory around $300M. It's now worth $2.5B, and has only recently returned to a SP of ~$0.90, this was all due to dilution. If you didn't have the money to keep throwing into averaging down your buy in price (capital raising or on-market) then your at a loss but if you did, then you'd be way ahead. Though doing this heavily imbalances your portfolio.
So you could of gone from holding shares in a company with a market cap of $300M, which grew to a market cap of $2.5B and still have lost money.

The point is, if your using an investment strategy where you stick to investing X% or X$ into a company for diversification, and that company keep issueing more shares, you then have to unbalance your portfolio or risk dilution.

"Angin & Goldstandard,
I agree the door knockers will leave once sp picks up. Not long now imo. Fundamentally cheap. Many others priced similarly not even producing a iota"

For all you know, we have the same end price in mind, but just believe the share price will get there in a different way.

Atm I can't see much reason for a re-rating in the immediate future.
* Botswana has an 18month drilling program.
* DWC a DFS.
* AIM listing.
* Penumbra Construction should be complete by end of year.
* Vlak/Ferriera already producing (don't see any significant changes).

Most significant milestones are medium/longterm, while I would expect progress updates, I'd expect these to happen over months, not days or weeks.

Obviously there are some wildcards (but they are impossible to predict/give a timeline too).
* Joint Venture (more so if it advances the schedule for a particular mine).
* Major Instituional Shareholders.
* Offtake agreements (to a small extent).
* Spot Coal Price (but this could be up or down).