If they're completing a Phase 1 now I think starting a Phase 3 this year seems rather unlikely. Regulus's is targeting genetic kidney disease ADPKD. There is an existing drug Tolvaptan approved in 2018 which has annual sales of about US$1.3 billion (depending upon where you research) and is priced at $13,000 for 1 month, or >$100,000 a year.
However, its about to become a generic and also has significant side effects which means its not used long term.
Regulus reckons there are 500k potential patients in the US. If they had a successful drug sold for $100k a year x 25% penetration that could theoretically achieve peak sales of $12 billion in the USA. So certainly has huge potential. Though it would also be competing against a generic. Also, its only at Phase 1 so you have to discount this by probably 90%.
NEU Price at posting:
$11.66 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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