I think the revenue multiple will be proven incorrect by year end based on the extrapolation of expenditure.
for example, if opex expenditure plateau's around $120m, analysts will see this.
taking your figure:
May 2026 NET Revenue: $221m
Opex Costs: -$120m
EBIT: $110m
after interest ($0) and tax ($30m)
NPAT: $80M
I cannot see this company being valued at only $2 billion earning $80m in profit with a demonstrated stable base revenue, particularly because this revenue is secured as ARR (annual reoccurring), and therefore, will very likely be demonstrating at least a stable patient base.
A stable patient base of 40,000 patients will allow me to annualize your monthly figure of $28m to $336 AUD pa.
resulting in NET $150m
This is a $5B valuation or $2.70 share price.The market will see this coming in December 2025 and will not assign a 75c price with an instant 300% re-rate in May. It will more likely appreciate this data along the way to December 2025, assigning a price of $1.50 to $1.80 in December 2025, allowing for a derisking of 2 quarters to realize a $2.70 share price.
this does not even factor in a growing patient base (growing by 700pw) from that point you can amplify the logic to demonstrate +$3.50 by June 2026 very easily
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Change
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Mkt cap ! $294.1M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0 |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 147 | 17.5¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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14.0¢ | 99720 | 1 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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45 | 3144011 | 0.145 |
127 | 5887368 | 0.140 |
67 | 3221505 | 0.135 |
47 | 8790940 | 0.130 |
35 | 854656 | 0.125 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.150 | 1202181 | 21 |
0.155 | 2589755 | 26 |
0.160 | 1179594 | 16 |
0.165 | 1107971 | 16 |
0.170 | 1800244 | 30 |
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