Current And Future Valuation 2025, page-198

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iamagenius

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02/05/25

17:14

Post #: 78899559
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Originally posted by saucy88 ↑

I think the revenue multiple will be proven incorrect by year end based on the extrapolation of expenditure.

for example, if opex expenditure plateau's around $120m, analysts will see this.

taking your figure:
May 2026 NET Revenue: $221m
Opex Costs: -$120m

EBIT: $110m
after interest ($0) and tax ($30m)

NPAT: $80M

I cannot see this company being valued at only $2 billion earning $80m in profit with a demonstrated stable base revenue, particularly because this revenue is secured as ARR (annual reoccurring), and therefore, will very likely be demonstrating at least a stable patient base.

A stable patient base of 40,000 patients will allow me to annualize your monthly figure of $28m to $336 AUD pa.
resulting in NET $150m

This is a $5B valuation or $2.70 share price.
The market will see this coming in December 2025 and will not assign a 75c price with an instant 300% re-rate in May. It will more likely appreciate this data along the way to December 2025, assigning a price of $1.50 to $1.80 in December 2025, allowing for a derisking of 2 quarters to realize a $2.70 share price.

this does not even factor in a growing patient base (growing by 700pw) from that point you can amplify the logic to demonstrate +$3.50 by June 2026 very easily

Expand

Nice post
Snowball revenue comes to mind
Give it time
5% pen rate is starting to look very achievable
Then we start going global

BOT Price at posting: 45.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
11 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 30.3¢		Change 0.003(0.83%)		Mkt cap ! $588.2M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
30.5¢	30.5¢	30.0¢	$664.7K	2.203M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
13	477084	30.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
30.5¢	714204	18

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
14	489743	0.300
23	1036366	0.295
21	1109775	0.290
18	946339	0.285
36	757460	0.280

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.305	696516	17
0.310	1073204	15
0.315	397107	11
0.320	655120	12
0.325	156594	3

Last trade - 11.32am 25/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

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Current And Future Valuation 2025, page-198

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Current And Future Valuation 2025, page-198

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