CU6 - ASX Charts, page-2217

A bidding war from BP...

Now that is the question...and it's a very big question...it's potentially a life changing question for a lot of long term holders.

I used to be very confident of a BP takeover. About this time last year - I thought a takeover of 5-8b USD was a no brainer for both the purchaser and the seller (us)...now I am not too sure...

Now...everthing that follows is purely speculation on my part....I am taking things from what AT has said in interviews etc. I am taking into account his "bullsih-ness" during these interviews and his general confidendence (which borders on arrogance at times - but hey - as a sharholder in the company - I want him to be arrogant etc. and when the science backs it up with 3 FTDs - how good!!!!)...

What is AT saying of late???...he notes that the diagnostics and therapy market is about 10b USD per year...he is saying that we are not here to muck around...that he wants to take it all...

Our therapy product has just "moved forward" into pre-chemo patients - where Novartis reckon with their Pluvicto product that it is worth about 5b USD in sales per year...just think about that figure for a moment...

Now...none of us have a crystal ball...none of us know exactly how much of the market share that Clarity will take (if any - in both diagnostics and therapy).. we can all speculate and that's great...but what I want to consider is what AT could possibly recommend to shareholders based on his recent comments...

Let's assume for just one moment that he is right - and our products dominate the market - what is a fair takeover value? It has to be north of 10b USD right? People might make a case that it should be less than this amount - fair enough. We are all speculating.

If we assume that he is a bit off with his assertions - and we only take half the market (diagnostic and therapy) - what is a fair takeover value? We have significant patent protection (which some people don't think is very important - god knows why) and a slew of other proprietary products for other cancers and indications...is the takeover value still north of 10b USD in these circumstances? I personally think it is.

So whilst I am very bullish in relation to the company in general (and it taking most of the market share) - I am starting to think that a TO is becoming less likely. Which BP player is going to take the "punt" and snap us up for north of 10b USD in the next 6 months?

Anyway - time will probably prove this post laughably wrong - which is fine - I just can't presently see any BP offering north of 10b USD in the next 6 months - although stranger things have happened...

It might be the case that Clarity have to go it alone for a little while. In which case - has everyone done a deep dive on the technology over at Nusano??? What a company to align yourself with... I think Clarity has recently been described as a leader in innovation by one of its most fervent critics (shout out Big Nath)... which is so apt...I think what Clarity has done in terms of its chelator and targeting agents is the literal definition of innovation (compared to what the rest of the market is doing)...