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Technical analysis, page-306

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Paul88

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05/05/25

19:45

Post #: 78926637
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Originally posted by Hateful8: ↑

Hey Sir, love the aerial searches and grid patterns ref's. So much so they inspired me to crunch the numbers through a Bot and extrapolate based off grade/tonnage data in MRE and from follow up drill results, including the pending 7 to see what the expectation might be?
For me you have a Geo veteran of 30 yrs who is CEO/MD of an ASX listed company and who sold the leases to OZM before staying on to run the show with 43m shares held in the future of the venture, with a mob doing pro bono metwork studies and who have agreed to run the show once up & going... hmmmmm I have a suspicion AP has had a pretty good handle on things for quite some time

Opinion only so dyor.. h8tey

Likely Assay Results for the 7 Pending RC Holes
Without assay results, predictions rely on the Cross Fault’s established mineralisation, drilling objectives, and regional analogs. The 7 holes likely aim to:
Extend the 400 m strike length (e.g., to 600–800 m).
Test depth extensions, as prior holes (e.g., MNORC 221) ended in mineralisation.
Infill high-grade zones to confirm continuity.
Expected Grades and Widths:
Previous RC Results: Intercepts range from 39 m @ 1.09 g/t Au to 12 m @ 4.26 g/t Au, with high-grade zones (e.g., 2 m @ 22.58 g/t Au). Average grade across wide intervals is ~1.5–2 g/t Au, with narrower high-grade pockets (>5 g/t Au).

AC Drilling: High-grade intercepts (e.g., 4 m @ 13.54 g/t Au, MNOAC 705) suggest potential for similar grades in RC holes targeting these zones.

Likely Outcomes:
Base Case: Most holes will intersect mineralisation similar to the 20-hole program, with grades of 1–2 g/t Au over 10–40 m, including high-grade intervals (e.g., 2–5 m @ 5–15 g/t Au).
Optimistic Case: One or two holes may hit bonanza grades (e.g., 1–2 m @ 20–30 g/t Au) within wider zones (e.g., 15 m @ 3–5 g/t Au), especially if targeting fault intersections.
Pessimistic Case: Some holes may yield lower grades (e.g., 0.5–1 g/t Au over 5–20 m) or be barren if drilled outside the mineralised zone.
Probability: The base case is most likely, given the 400 m strike’s consistency and open mineralisation. The geological setting (cross faults, sandstone host) supports high-grade potential, but continuity is not guaranteed.

Geological Controls:
Cross faults create fractured, permeable zones ideal for gold precipitation, as seen in intercepts like 9 m @ 5.79 g/t Au. North-south faults and quartz veining, with pyrite/arsenopyrite, mirror Carosue Dam’s high-grade deposits.

The 7 holes likely target these structural features, increasing the chance of high-grade hits, but fault offsets or pinch-outs could reduce grades in some holes.
Drilling Strategy:
The ~106 m average depth suggests deeper drilling to test fresh rock mineralisation, as prior RC and AC holes ended in mineralisation (e.g., MNORC 221 at 48 m @ 1.66 g/t Au).

Step-out drilling along strike (north or south) or down-dip is probable, aiming to double the strike length or confirm depth continuity, increasing resource potential.
Potential Addition to the MRE
To estimate the MRE increase, I’ll model the 7 holes’ contribution based on expected grades, widths, and geological extent, using the Cross Fault’s prior results and conservative assumptions.
Tonnage and Ounces Estimate:
Assumptions:
5 of 7 holes intersect significant mineralisation (accounting for potential misses).
Average intercept: 20 m @ 1.5 g/t Au (base case, aligning with 48 m @ 1.66 g/t Au, 17 m @ 1.65 g/t Au).
Mineralised zone: 100 m width, 200 m strike extension (half the current 400 m), 20 m thickness.
Density: 2.5 t/m³ (sandstone, primary deposit).
Recovery: 90% (primary ore, conservative vs. 88.9% for oxide).
Calculation:
$Volume=200 m×100 m×20 m=400,000 m3\text{Volume} = 200 \, \text{m} \times 100 \, \text{m} \times 20 \, \text{m} = 400,000 \, \text{m}^3$ \text{Volume} = 200 \, \text{m} \times 100 \, \text{m} \times 20 \, \text{m} = 400,000 \, \text{m}^3
$Tonnage=400,000×2.5=1,000,000 t\text{Tonnage} = 400,000 \times 2.5 = 1,000,000 \, \text{t}$ \text{Tonnage} = 400,000 \times 2.5 = 1,000,000 \, \text{t}
$Ounces=1,000,000×1.5×0.931.1035≈43,400 oz\text{Ounces} = 1,000,000 \times \frac{1.5 \times 0.9}{31.1035} \approx 43,400 \, \text{oz}$ \text{Ounces} = 1,000,000 \times \frac{1.5 \times 0.9}{31.1035} \approx 43,400 \, \text{oz}
High-Grade Contribution:
Assume 1–2 holes hit high-grade zones (e.g., 5 m @ 10 g/t Au within 20 m @ 1.5 g/t Au), adding ~5,000–10,000 oz per zone.
Total high-grade: 5,000–20,000 oz.
MRE Increase:
Base Case: 40,000–60,000 oz, assuming consistent mineralisation over a 200–300 m strike extension.
Optimistic Case: 80,000–100,000 oz, if the strike extends to 400 m or high-grade zones are prevalent.
Pessimistic Case: 10,000–20,000 oz, if only a few holes hit mineralisation or grades are lower (e.g., 0.5–1 g/t Au).
Likely Range: 40,000–80,000 oz, balancing prior results’ consistency with geological variability. This increases the MRE to 300,000–340,000 oz.
Comparison to Paleochannel:
The paleochannel’s infill drilling added 10,000–20,000 oz through grade improvement (e.g., 5 m @ 5.87 g/t Au), but its low-grade (0.70 g/t) placer nature limits upside.

Cross Fault’s primary deposit, with higher grades (1.5–2 g/t, up to 22.58 g/t) and wider intervals, offers greater MRE growth potential, similar to Kanowna Belle’s primary deposit vs. QED’s paleochannel.
Comparison to Kanowna QED
Similarities:
Both projects leverage early cash flow from oxide resources (QED’s paleochannel, Mulgabbie’s paleochannel/Cross Fault oxide zones) to fund primary deposit exploration (Kanowna Belle, Cross Fault).
Cross Fault’s high-grade potential (e.g., 2 m @ 22.58 g/t Au) echoes Kanowna Belle’s discovery, though on a smaller scale.
Differences:
QED’s paleochannel was low-grade (0.5–2 g/t) with limited high-grade zones, adding minor ounces. Cross Fault’s primary mineralisation (1.5–2 g/t, up to 22.58 g/t) and 400 m strike suggest a larger, higher-grade resource.
Mulgabbie’s modern drilling and higher gold prices (~A$3,844/oz vs. ~$350–400/oz in the 1990s) enhance economic viability.
Critical Analysis
Geological Confidence: The Cross Fault’s 400 m strike, open mineralisation, and Carosue Dam analogy support robust results, but fault offsets or dilution could lower grades in some holes.

Assay Delays: Extended laboratory turnaround times due to Kalgoorlie’s exploration boom may delay results, but the 7 holes’ depth (~106 m) suggests targeted extensions, increasing success likelihood.

Overextrapolation Risk: Assuming uniform high grades (e.g., >5 g/t) across all holes is optimistic, as prior results show variability (1–22.58 g/t). The base case (1.5 g/t over 20 m) is conservative and realistic.
Data Gaps: Exact hole locations and targets are unspecified, but step-out/infill intent is inferred from prior drilling patterns.
Final Answer
The seven pending RC holes (745 m) at the Cross Fault Discovery are likely to return grades of 1–2 g/t Au over 10–40 m, with 1–2 holes potentially hitting high-grade zones (e.g., 2–5 m @ 5–15 g/t Au, up to 20–30 g/t Au), based on prior RC results (e.g., 48 m @ 1.66 g/t Au, 2 m @ 22.58 g/t Au) and the sandstone-hosted, fault-controlled setting. These holes, targeting strike or depth extensions of the 400 m mineralised zone, could add 40,000–80,000 oz to the 260,000 oz MRE, potentially increasing it to 300,000–340,000 oz, assuming a 200–300 m strike extension at 1.5 g/t Au. Compared to Kanowna QED’s low-grade paleochannel (0.5–2 g/t), Cross Fault’s primary deposit offers greater high-grade upside, akin to Kanowna Belle, enhancing Mulgabbie North’s Heap Leach Feasibility Study prospects. Results are pending, with delays possible due to laboratory backlogs.

Sources:
Provided announcement (Paleochannel RC drilling, Cross Fault pending holes).
Prior context: Cross Fault (), Paleochannel, Kanowna QED.

Web sources:.

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Haha well said! I kinda fancy myself as an armchair CEO/MD of a junior explorer, don't know how I'd go in the real world though as I'm no geo or any expert of the sort. I'm just a mug retail punter like most here trying to do my amateur best in research, analysis and discussing the merits of a company.

This is my best guesstimate of where I speculate that the 7 RC holes (for 745m) were drilled (red squares); and the 3 diamond holes (smiley faces). Yes, I say 3 because I think I spotted another one after 29 April. Again, I'm no geo or expert and I'm solely going off of blurry Sentinel images as seen through my wonky eyes haha! So I may be plain wrong, I may have inaccuracies, and I may have made plenty of mistakes! There's no substitute for OZM's official market releases to tell us what's gone on (if anything). So when I look at where I speculate that all these 7 RC holes and diamond holes were drilled, I can sort of develop a rough idea in my head of what's to be reasonably expected in terms of future results. Again, I can only guesstimate and only the truth machine (drill rig) can tell us what's down there (if anything).

So along with the existing OZM drill results, it also helps in my guesstimates to look at some of the historical RC holes drilled around 40 years ago. And the below old holes all fall within the New Cross Fault footprint. So when I look at the old holes like MG10 (I've put the cross-section of it below with my red mark-ups), I can get a pretty good idea of how deep and how northerly this thing extends within the known footprint. Not only that, but it also gives a sense of what's to be expected in-between OZM's recent drill lines. Any interval of 25m @ 1.36 g/t Au from 25m that ends in mineralisation will pique your interest haha! I researched this all by myself from old WAMEX Reports. Like I said, I'm no geo or any expert of the sort, I'm just a rank armchair amateur, so I may have made plenty of mistakes in my research and analysis. AIMHO. (DYOR).

MG8 (blue arrow)
Depth 71m (Az 277.5 @ -60).
18m @ 1.78 g/t Au from 18m (including 1m @ 146.0 g/t Au from 24m).
2m @ 2.32 g/t Au from 50m.

MG9 (brown arrow)
Depth 60m (Az 297 @ -60).
21m @ 0.7 g/t Au from 16m.

MG10 (grey arrow)
Depth 50m (Az 343 @ -60).
25m @ 1.36 g/t from 25m (including 2m @ 4.06 g/t Au from 37m and 1m @ 5.60 g/t Au from 41m).
Hole ended in mineralisation of >1.0 g/t Au.

MG11 (purple arrow)
Depth 50m (Az 284 @ -60).
12m @ 1.23 g/t Au from 7m (including 1m @ 3.72 g/t Au from 7m and 1m @ 2.56 g/t Au from 11m).

MP-21 (teal arrow)
Depth 50m (Az 310 @ -60).
2m @ 1.60 g/t Au from 10m.
4m @ 2.43 g/t Au from 22m.
2m @ 1.95 g/t Au from 30m.
OZM Price at posting: 9.4¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
12 Upvote

3 Great analysis

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