3DA to supply Space X?, page-6

thought id make it alittle more interesting. Asked using current deals, finiancing, and last 4c, what if 3DA was to get another $20mill deal before July 1st.

6. Final Estimate

Assuming the $20M USD deal is a revenue-generating contract announced before July 1, 2025, and considering partial revenue recognition and market enthusiasm, the market cap could reasonably range from:

• Conservative: AUD 300–400M (partial revenue, stable P/S of 15)
• Base Case: AUD 400–600M (full revenue, P/S of 15–18)
• Optimistic: AUD 600–800M (full revenue, P/S of 20, strong sentiment)

The base case of AUD 400–600M seems plausible, balancing the deal’s size with Amaero’s growth-stage dynamics and market conditions.

7. Caveats

• Lack of Revenue Data: The estimate relies on assumed current revenue. Actual financials could alter the P/S ratio significantly.
• Deal Structure: If the deal is a loan, grant, or multi-year contract, the impact may be diluted.
• Execution Risks: Amaero’s negative EBITDA suggests operational challenges. The deal’s profitability is uncertain.
• Market Volatility: ASX performance and global trade issues could suppress valuation multiples.