how much will price fall on ex dividend date?, page-8

Will see.
Now everybody gets their full franking credits and people have to wait for them until their tax return is processed.
The 14c divi a cash in a month time.

In a sense it is like a promissory note with a month to expiry. Than kind of note would have a discount factor applied to it relative to current interest rate.

So purely theoretical value of the divies on the ex day with 1 month to go would be 14 * .995 = 13.93
assuming 6% pa interest.

But the other 6c with its if and when factor probably would not be wort more than 4c now, theoretically speaking.

That is how I came with 18c max forecast.

Of course most people will not do this kind of mental exercise SP will be subject to market forces on the day and in days to follow

I guess it is always better to expect a worse outcome and be pleasantly surprised when wrong. :-)