KoBold Makes Offer for Congo Lithium as Country Courts US, page-962

groks version (less all the calculations etc!)

6. Final Estimate: $ Per Share

• Base Valuation: $1.5 billion for AVZ’s 75% stake ÷ 3.5 billion shares = $0.43 USD per share.
• With Premium: Applying a 60% premium (midpoint of web ID: 0’s 54%–73%) to a hypothetical $0.51 USD share price gives $0.82 USD per share.
• Optimistic Scenario: X user

  @TEN15TENNIS

  ’s $2 USD reflects high optimism, possibly factoring in Manono’s strategic value to the U.S. and long-term lithium demand. This implies a $7 billion valuation for AVZ ($2 × 3.5 billion shares), or a $9.33 billion project valuation—high but not implausible given KoBold’s $1 billion+ commitment and U.S. geopolitical interests.
• Realistic Range: Considering the web analysis ($0.78–$0.98 USD), DRC risks, and shareholder expectations, a buyout range of $0.80–$1.50 USD per share is reasonable. The midpoint, $1.15 USD, balances Manono’s value with market and geopolitical realities.

7. My Recommendation

• Buyout Estimate: I estimate KoBold might offer $1.00–$1.20 USD per share, equivalent to $1.54–$1.85 AUD (at 0.65 AUD/USD). This aligns with the web analysis’s $1.20–$1.50 AUD range, adjusted for 2025 conditions, and offers a 96%–135% premium over the last known share price of $0.51 USD ($0.78 AUD).
• Rationale:
  • Manono’s strategic importance and KoBold’s $1 billion commitment justify a premium.
  • The $1.5 billion valuation for AVZ’s stake, with a 60%–100% premium, supports this range.
  • Shareholder expectations (

    @TEN15TENNIS

    ’s $2 USD) are optimistic but reflect the project’s long-term potential, tempered by DRC risks and lithium price volatility.
• Likelihood of Acceptance: At $1.00–$1.20 USD, shareholders are likely to accept, as it exceeds the web analysis’s target of $0.88 USD ($1.35 AUD) and offers significant relief after years of uncertainty. However, if KoBold offers below $1.00 USD, shareholders may push back, given the project’s scale and strategic value.

Conclusion

Based on the valuation of Manono, AVZ’s stake, market conditions, and stakeholder sentiment, I estimate a buyout price of $1.00–$1.20 USD per share for AVZ Minerals. This range balances the project’s immense potential with the risks of operating in the DRC and current lithium market dynamics. It also aligns with the web analysis and shareholder expectations, offering a substantial premium to reflect Manono’s strategic importance in the global energy transition. However, the final price will depend on negotiations, which could push the offer higher if KoBold prioritizes securing the asset swiftly.