My attention was drawn to the weekly analysis. A piercing pattern does not happen that often on candlestick charting.
I agree with Donny that shorting is distorting the scene from a strategic point of view. Normally a piercing pattern as seen in my chart below, is an indication of a bullish reversal. I qualify that by saying, I like to see it associated with a stronger RSI and stochastics or MACD which shorting is putting the breaks on as are world events. However, that big white candle indicated to me, when price rose during past the mid point of the large down candle before it, a level of support was being established by the market makers.
I agree with, proc, that there is a cup and handle play and this supports the role of the piecing pattern indicating a long term uptrend. As such the downward fall in price is short term and could be seen as a normal pullback because price now sits in the golden zone between the 50% fib and the 60% fib which are used by chartists to determine pullback levels. However, price may extend sideways or consolidate without news because we are now in the month of May when buyers traditionally go away and traders adjust losses for taxation purposes. Some smarties may press stops a tad. Then its a question of evaluating the assets and knowing when a genuine discount exists. We all like to buy low and sell high.
On balance, I think the shorts would hope to buy at lower prices to facilitate accumulation with the longer view in mind. Brokers are on both sides of the trade. What better time to apply this strategy when its "May, go away". An assessment of risk V reward of at least 3:1 is a buyer decision at this time of year. There is a war on in many fronts. Tough times.
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