At the moment I've got Neuren holding approx $330-336 million which includes:
- Cost of buyback from 31st March till now (~ $15,652,488)
- Receipt of $13.5 million royalty for Q1 2025
- Interest of approx $1.35 million
- Expenses of $4.7 million based on 2024's average quarterly expenses
I'd say ramping up for the P3 trial and other clinical activities hasnt incurred high expenses yet, mainly administrative activities so overall cost still quite low until the trial has patients dosing.
The interest and royalty payments are easily covering quarterly expense for now, and leaving a little left over for buybacks. If you allocate $50 million for the trial (lowest cost) then cash drops to $280-286 million. Potentially $4 million left over each quarter from earnings to contribute to another buyback ($16 million in 12 months) which leaves $34 million to cover a $50 million buyback would drop cash down to ~ $250 million.
Following this very rough financial logic, Neuren still has adequate financial resources to self fund marketing and selling 2591 in the US whilst initiating another Phase 3 trial or ~ 3 Phase 2 trials.
This scenario would drop them under $100 million cash, which I dont know you'd want to go any lower than that. But it gives you an idea what could be achieved if Neuren remained aggressive in development and buybacks. Intimidating....if you're short NEU
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