I don't really have any way to evaluate the commerciality of TBN as there are too many unknowns that depending on what values I choose could swing the results from wildly economic to wildly uneconomic.
Two things though - watch TBN's SP over the next few weeks because that will quite likely be the first indication of how it's going. Rigs have always been leaky ships for insider trading and these days it can all be monitored remotely in real time.
Secondly, I expect the IP30 rate to be pretty impressive. The key will be to compare the IP90 to the IP30 to see how much it's declined. It's great that they are testing for 90 days.
As for GSAs I think the Beetaloo has a lot of potential but I think people are seriously underestimating how long it's going to take to establish commercial production in such a remote and high cost location. If they can get enough investment money flowing in that might not matter, like a tech start up they can play the long game and just keep operating at a loss while they build scale. But I think the Amadeus JV will remain the lowest cost supplier to the NT for the next 5 plus years.
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