This is what AI says using scoping study model.
How does the 9-year mine life impact Carnaby's EPS projections.
How does the 9-year mine life impact Carnaby's EPS projections
Impact of 9-Year Mine Life on Carnaby Resources’ EPS Projections
Mine Life as a Key Driver for EPS
The 9-year initial mine life at Carnaby Resources’ Greater Duchess project directly shapes the company’s earnings per share (EPS) projections by defining the period and scale of revenue generation, cost recovery, and capital allocation. Here’s how:
Defined Production Window: The 9-year mine life sets a finite period during which Carnaby can generate revenue from copper and gold production. This timeframe underpins all financial modeling, including revenue, EBITDA, and ultimately, net profit calculations that feed into EPS projections
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Revenue and EBITDA Profile: The scoping study models annual copper production averaging around 13kt, peaking at 20kt in 2029, with corresponding revenue and EBITDA estimates provided for each year within the mine life
. For example, projected revenue in FY29 is A$220.8 million with EBITDA of A$80.9 million, peaking in FY30 with revenue of A$324.8 million and EBITDA of A$124.6 million
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No Assumptions Beyond 9 Years: Analysts and company disclosures do not factor in any production or earnings beyond the 9-year period, making the EPS projections conservative and strictly tied to this defined operational window
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Capital Recovery and Depreciation: The capital expenditure (capex) and depreciation schedules are aligned with the 9-year mine life, affecting annual net profit and thus EPS. For instance, depreciation and amortization begin to impact EBIT from FY27 onwards, with a modeled depreciation of A$20 million in FY27
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Shareholder Returns: The net profit after tax (NPAT) generated during these 9 years, divided by the number of shares on issue, determines the EPS. The scoping study’s net present value (NPV) per share is estimated at A$0.92, which, while not a direct EPS figure, gives an indication of potential value creation per share over the mine’s life
Upside and Limitations
Potential for Extension: The 9-year projection is conservative; successful exploration could extend mine life and enhance future EPS, but current projections do not include this upside
.
EPS Volatility: EPS is expected to vary year-on-year, peaking during highest production years and declining as ore grades and volumes taper towards the end of the mine life
Conclusion
The 9-year mine life provides the framework for Carnaby’s EPS projections, limiting modeled earnings to this period and ensuring that all financial forecasts, including EPS, are based on a realistic and currently defined resource base. Any future mine life extension or resource upgrade could positively revise EPS projections, but current models remain anchored to the 9-year outlook.
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FireflyOne
The writer's opinions are his own and do not constitute financial advice in any ways.Nothing here constitutes an investment recommendation nor should anything written here or published by myself be relied upon for any investment activities.I strongly recommend that you perform your own independent research and/or speak with a qualified investment professional before making any financial decisions.
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