Totally agree with all of this. But the conclusion based on this is that LTR was pumped to generate liquidity for shorts.
The run up on LTR seems to have clearly been bigger money creating momentum to generate liquidity for an eventual increase in short positions. Zero underlying news - nobody is going to touch LV due to Gina’s blocking stake, LT+ committed offtakes already.
On the Friday when LTR closed above $2bn market cap - the valuation was close to double where it should have been.
For example, Sigma who are about to double capacity to 500Ktpa and have lower costs than LTR on that same Friday were valued around $1bn AUD (and still are today).
Even now at $1.6bn for LTR, this seems way too high given that KV is a loss making operation with a huge debt burden and limited cash to avoid further dilution.
At least the $4.4bn val on PLS is somewhat justifiable given their cash balance guarantees they can see out the cycle without a CR, plus they have Colina capable of being constructed and commissioned in Brazil if SC6 starts moving back to $1k/t
LTR Price at posting:
63.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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