lynas vs alkane, page-10

inho wrote: I believe Alkane sp gone up because the price of gold is going up. ALK dropped when p o gold turned south.
ARU not too flash ,as it come in production after LYC.
NTU ,rising because of ???uranium, potash, and more important the HREE element .

Nice comment imho. But to be totally frank with the group, I think Alkane is Australia's Molycorp. There is little fundamental about it IMO. A 1% TREO (Total Rare Earth Oxide) in NSW is a long shot at best. You see my main concern is the recovery percentage needs to be great at such a TREO level. And the HREE race will not have several winners (although the field is very large right now). The tonnage of HREE's (Heavy Rare Earth Elements) used is not that large. A first rate mine or two will fill the full needs of the current industry and should be scalable for future needs. Alkane appears to be close to ore production, but the real question is economical viability. Integration appears to be far away. And if NTU's BR or JG end up as good as early numbers indicate they could take over quickly. The smart money seems to be betting this way. The Alkane team is not what I would expect from a first HREE mine to produce. And Yue and NC through Lynas went with NTU, not Alkane. That happened even though Alkane is much more developed. These pieces should be falling in place at this stage.
Alkane could be a (risky) trade IMO, but there is not enough fundamentals that I can see. And short term price changes do not change this. Pipe dreams like Alkane always go up faster when a commodity story starts. But the fudamentals take over in due time. It was true with iron, copper, uranium, gold, and silver. It will be true of rare earth. Trade with history. History never repeats itself, but it always rhymes. At this stage in rare earth with less new hot money coming in on the recent China announcements and increasing prices, Alkane is looking to me like a risky trade. And Lynas like a bargain at this stage in the trade cycle.