New Murchison isn't going to survive 12 months as an independent gold company, everyone knows this. The question is when, and for how much, Westgold buys it. Media speculation over the past few days is just plain reality sinking in.
However, this isn't a bad thing.
As 1.5-1.6c NMG has a market cap of ~$150M. It is set to process 150K ounces in the next 12-18 months. If it makes $1,000/Oz on these, it has 1:1 cash to market capital. It seems NMG might make north of $2000/Oz.
The company then becomes a cash box. It has underground extension potential, sure, and the ore surface will start to drive itself down plunge economically and logistically, and costs won't be prohibitive even if the gold price doesn't stay at silly record prices. There is still risk in predicting this, but it's a matter of when and how much, versus "if".
Westgold is already on the register, so NMG isn't going to anyone else. Not that there is many others around the traps. Meeka won't make a bid, it's too busy with its own mining ramping up. Monument could treat the underground ore, but it's engaged in (to my mind) futile discussions with ODY and GBR to try and squeeze three companies worth of aspirations through a mill that's able to support 1/3rd of one company, so that's a non starter.
Let's assume WGX is happy to stick with the OPA and its blocking stake, and lets NMG book all the profits onto its books, and become a cash box with an underground extension plan that is years away and would merely send more dirt, at a lower rate, into WGX. Low aspirations here for WGX's "grow to avoid Ramelius swallowing us up" strategy (ie; Bramwell and the bois keep their jobs)
So what does NMG do, assuming end of 2026 it has $150-350M cash? Where's Passmore's ambitions? What has he said about life after the Crown Prince pit?
It's the radio silence here thats the telling part, to me. This company is a one trick pony in a horse sale yard, and its not looking teachable. There is no life after the open pit, not even some very risky underground that the company has absolutely no plans (publicly) to prepare for, skill up for, and execute on. It's just drilling the plunge to cheaply add ounces to the pile for WGX to sweep off the table.
Does WGX buy before first cash flow? Seems sensible. Buying after cash flow starts, they'll probably have to pay more. Would still be worth it. But I guess it depends whether the bois have jobs after the takeover. Watch the directors and their back-up plans.
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