AVZ avz minerals limited

KoBold Makes Offer for Congo Lithium as Country Courts US, page-2147

  1. 319 Posts.
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    Broadly in agreement with you. Perhaps I didn't explain myself well. When I say we don't own the asset, it's a statement of fact. What we've been denied is the right to mine Manono for a period of time (mining licences are typically 20 years) & generate income for the company & shareholders for a period of time. It's only appropriate that AVZ is compensated for the loss of future income hence the negotiations with KoBold. What's not appropriate is deriving a share price estimate solely based on a 800 million tonne Li resource, hence some of the lofty valuations. I'll use the Woodside example again. North West Shelf contains approx 100 years of gas reserves. Woodside has a licence to produce gas until 2030. If Murray Watt decides not to extend the production licence beyond 2030, Woodside is out in 2030. The market doesn't value Woodside on the fact that it's sitting on 100 years of North West Shelf gas reserves. Nor does the market value BHP & RIO on the fact that they're sitting on 300 years of iron ore reserves. At present, they can only produce iron ore from the Pilbara until 2040. Re your comment about "loose" assumptions I've never said the assumptions are loose. AVZ would done a discounted cash flow analysis, presumably for a 15 or 20 year time period & would have come up with the value of cash flow (at present value) the company has been denied by not being issued with a mining licence. To derive the loss of income estimate, they would have included assumptions about a number of variables - forecast price of Li, forecast estimate of production costs, etc, etc. As good as the forecasts may be, there's plenty of uncertainty about predicting the value of a range of related variables many years into the future. Analysts back in 2023 were predicting iron ore to fall to $US60/tonne in 2025 but it's a $US100/tonne. Get my drift. Wayne Swan in delivering his last budget in 2012/13 predicted 4 years of budget surpluses based on a range of assumptions, but he never delivered one, including 2012/13. Why? Because the assumptions underpinning the budget projections proved to be wrong.

    In closing, as I've said many times before I trust Nigel & the BOD to deliver us the best possible outcome, whatever the final number looks like. As for patience, I've been on this journey since Nov 2017 - almost 8 years. I have plenty of patience + I also live with an incurable, life limiting illness - it teaches you patience whether you like it or not. Have a great day.
 
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