I'm not necessarily of the opinion that Susquehanna will immediately convert - I don't think it matters either way. They have the option to defer but I don't believe that accomplishes anything given the floor price has been breached.
There's a number of scenarios that can play out from here - all are too risky to warrant entering, IMO. It's quite possible Susquehanna will have made their money on the way down and will just liquidate their heads once converted. They already know IMU intend on printing another 1.2B pre-consolidation shares at up to a 25% discount to the VWAP. They may intend to push IMU lower and participate in this raise. They might push it even lower in an attempt to take the whole company - who knows.
Hell, they might even spill the board and champion returns for retail shareholders... Probably the least likely scenario though.
I say IMU is expensive here as the only real shot they have at commercialisation is Azer-Cel. It's a niche population and they're already competing against Allogene who are a couple of years ahead of them and targeting front-line treatment (i.e. if Allogene are successful it only shrinks Azer-Cel's TAM).
IMU really need a Hail Mary.
It's definitely entertaining viewing though. I still can't believe IMU were so willing to throw their shareholders under the bus with this raise...
IMU Price at posting:
1.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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