lynas, basket, from 80.4$ to 88.2$, page-11

wllmtrish wrote:
REElement 14/02/201 121/02/2011
Lanthanum Oxide $64.10 $74
Cerium Oxide $67.10 $72
Neodymium Oxide $114 $126
Praseodymium Ox $105.50 $116
Samarium Oxide $61.10 $62
Dysprosium Oxide $375 $415
Europium Oxide $646 $660
Terbium Oxide $640 $640
Basket Price $80.40/kg $88.20/kg

This will sound reckless now, but will make more sense in the coming months. I think the basket is heading past $200/k by the time the LAMP produces at the end of September. The reason is simple:
- The prices are continuing to rise at this pace.
- There is no on coming additional supply before September.
- China will clearly be producing less this year from the recent reports we've all read.
- Rare Earth demand cannot shut itself off just because of the element prices. The elements are critical, but a minor cost in each of their uses.
- Japanese clearing houses have clearly run through any reserves they might have had; and
- Strategic reserves are now being discussed by several governments.

Now before you dismiss this as a silly rant, do any of you see the basket at $88 by September? I know the analysts have their own view. But they have been wrong week after week since they made their estimates.
And if you believe the price will suddenly plateau at this level, what is the facts that support this view? Until I see a change in the facts, I would say we should assume the same trajectory or greater in rare earth prices, not some sudden speculation induced plateau or drop.
This thinking could matter if we catch a takeover bid from someone. The $88 could lead to a low ball bid. And I would hope people would see past that sort of quick buck. Just MO.