(This is a combined post from HC-LYC that a few from there wanted me to put here. I apologize if it is not too organized or the Word file adds strange ???s.)
Like many I am convinced LYC and NTU have a big future together in the near term. Here are the main facts that I think support this case:
Lynas buys into NTU in August; Conglin Yue positions himself for control; Lynas brings on a nuclear guy (Dr. Ziggy); NTU quickly announces good HREE results on its properties; NTU has the elements that Mount Weld has little production capacity for; On the LYC call Nicholas Curtis restricts his comment on NTU to a confident "NTU is a good investment"; Curtis is short and direct again on Dr. Ziggy's role as a non-executive director. Also note from the Lynas call that many of these supply contracts NC spoke about seem to be on an element by element basis. Such a conversation would surely result in a manufacturer's question "Where do I get the other elements for my technology?". Curtis would therefore have a strong incentive to be answering the whole question when trying to put together a favorable long term supply deal for Lynas. NTU's rare earth projects are in their infancy, but Lynas could move things along much quicker.
So with those facts in mind I believe any deal is down the road. Right now Lynas and Nicholas Curtis are well focused on the Lynas projects at hand (cash flow positive from Weld and the LAMP). That is their golden goose. NC never takes his eye off that and I appreciate that focus in a CEO. Sure the NTU rare earth projects will be more expensive later. But you buy things when you can, not when you want them. Meanwhile, he can prepare for this opportunity buy investing in NTU to give himself some voting influence in the company.
This approach has also already led to many LYC holders buying into NTU. NC must love this because he knows those shareholders will be very reluctant to sell the rare earth projects to anyone but LYC. In other words, the synergies and investor culture is already starting to fit based on parking a little of LYC's cash in NTU. At the same time LYC is not being spread too thin by the 9% placeholder.
NC even encouraged this activity when he said in the Q&A of unrecorded Lynas call "NTU is a good investment". I take this to mean he has his eye on Browns Range and John Galt and probably one or part of one of NTU's uranium projects. This would allow Lynas to process heavy rare earths in the future and would give them a location to store thorium and other radioactive by products.
Meanwhile, NTU will move the projects along to realize value as soon as possible. Then we could sell the assets to finance our other pursuits.
I see NTU as having a lot of projects. I think they will develop each project according to market forces and prices. By that I mean we will continue to shift towards the rare earth projects (BR & JG) right now since prices are up. Then we can sell the projects for their established value and shift the investment towards uranium or phosphate based on their outlook at that decision point.
This approach makes NTU a sort of greenfield exploration junior for now. That's not a bad position to be in because there is less cost and therefore less risk at this stage as opposed to a large brownfield mine investment. But such an approach requires NTU to pick great project sites with great potential. NTU seems to have their focus in this direction. The NTU team looks very good to me.
I also have noticed from this site that there are some real scientific/geologist studs posting over here. Believe it or not I have been over here shutting my mouth and reading for two months now. I understand about a third of what the science guys write, but God love them for posting it. I think the reason they are here is because they like NTU's projects and they therefore invest based on their own scientific knowledge.
Sounds like I'm guessing? I am. I have made this bet with juniors before and it's gone well. Adding in some smart money guys like Yue and NC with Lynas and the bet looks good.
I'm putting new capital into NTU at this time. Bejay and I are both emotionally attached to each of these stocks. But my hope is LYC produces; then graduates their ADR to a listing before NTU gets a Lynas offer. If it plays out this way I can ride both stocks up and roll some LYC (not a lot) over to NTU as the Lynas story matures and the NTU story heats up even further. And yes, I am sure NTU has a lot longer way to run.
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