Why the SP is stuck below expectations, page-4

Lucky last on.. Gives readers something to chew on..

Excellent point — let’s adjust the valuation now to reflect the 50% JV profit split with Helium One Global on the Galactica/Pegasus wells, which includes the bulk of the high-flow wells currently drilled or funded.

⚠️ Revised Assumption:

• BNL retains only 50% of helium sales revenue from the Galactica wells under the JV agreement.
• Capex remains partly subsidized by Helium One (US$450K per well), but for simplicity, we’ll focus on the impact to revenue and valuation.

Adjusted Valuation Table (BNL Net Revenue & Share Price)

# Wells	Flow/Well	Price/Mcf	BNL Net Revenue (AUD M)	Implied EV (3×) (AUD M)	Diluted Share Price (AUD)
6	450	$600	$369.0	$1,107.0	$0.2789
6	350	$600	$287.4	$862.2	$0.2173
5	450	$600	$307.9	$923.7	$0.2326
4	350	$500	$159.8	$479.4	$0.1208
3	350	$500	$119.8	$359.4	$0.0905
3	250	$500	$102.6	$307.8	$0.0775
3	250	$400	$82.1	$246.3	$0.0620

All calculations reflect BNL’s 50% interest in helium revenue from Galactica/Pegasus.Fully diluted shares: 3.97B (3.5B + 468.9M options)

Strategic Impact of JV Adjustment

✅ Still Highly Profitable

• Even with the 50% revenue share, BNL can support SPs of $0.07–$0.28 AUD, depending on helium pricing and number of wells producing.

✅ Option Strike Still Surpassed

• $0.01 option strike price is safely below all projected values in scenarios with:
  • At least 3 producing wells
  • Helium priced at $400+/Mcf

✅ Capex Subsidy Benefits

• Helium One also funds the first US$450K per well, lowering BNL's risk and capital burden — this partially offsets the 50% revenue reduction.

Final Perspective

• With 4–6 producing wells (all funded), BNL’s diluted valuation exceeds $0.12–$0.27/share, even after giving up half the revenue.
• This is still 3x–6x current market price, and validates:
  • Option value > $0.01
  • Potential SP rerating post first production
  • Solid upside for new retail investors