The proverbial has really hit the fan.
We have previously mentioned some legacy auto manufacturers having to shut down specific lines of vehicles.
Well, this thematic is now gaining traction, and is becoming a lot more wide spread.
.
The export license bottle neck and bans. are chocking the auto and defence industries, outside of China.
As if the legacy auto makers were not in enough trouble, this could be the beginning for many of them either amalgamating, or going to the wall.
China's EV critical mineral strategy, battery tech and advanced EV tech, was always meant to takeover and dominate the world.
Its has been 25 years in the making, and they have thrown hundreds of billions at it. Make no mistake, They are 2 generations ahead of everyone except Tesla.
This RE situation, plays into that thematic, although the biggest catalyst has been the tariff war with the US.
Many will get wrecked, and many will fail........because controlling the RE supply gives them the ability to not only knock out the wests auto makers, but their massive defence industries as well.
This is an extremely high stakes game for the west, who are just starting to realise the precarious position they are in.
The US has woken up, and is starting to throw policy and capital at the problem.
Will the UK and EU wake up in time?
We shall see.......
China’s rare earth weapon changes contours of tradewar battlefield - Reuters News
By Laurie Chen
06 Jun 2025 13:34:11
China'sexpanding sanctions regime modelled on the U.S.
- Export licence system key for global supply chain surveillance
- Impossible to know what share of requests get approved
BEIJING, June 6(Reuters) - China has signalled for more than 15 years that it was looking to weaponiseareas of the global supply chain, a strategy modelled on longstanding Americanexport controls Beijing views as aimed at stalling its rise.
The scramble in recent weeks to secure exportlicences for rare earths, capped by Thursday's telephone call between U.S.and Chinese leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, shows China has devised abetter, more precisely targeted weapon for trade war.
Industry executives and analysts say while China isshowing signs of approving more exports of the key elements, it will notdismantle its new system.
Modelled on the United States' own, Beijing's exportlicence system gives it unprecedented insight into supplier chokepoints inareas ranging from motors for electric vehicles to flight-control systems forguided missiles.
"China originally took inspiration for these exportcontrol methods from the comprehensive U.S. sanctions regime," said ZhuJunwei, a scholar at the Grandview Institution, a Beijing-based think tankfocused on international relations.
"China has been trying to build its own exportcontrol systems since then, to be used as a last resort."
After Thursday's call, Trump said both leaders had been"straightening out some of the points, having to do mostly with rare earthmagnets and some other things".
He did not say whether China committed to speeding uplicences for exports of rare earth magnets, after Washington curbed exports ofchip design software and jet engines to Beijing in response to its perceivedslow-rolling on licences.
China holds a near-monopoly on rare earth magnets, acrucial component in EV motors.
In April it added some of the most sophisticated types toan export control list in its trade war with the United States, forcing allexporters to apply to Beijing for licences.
That put a once-obscuredepartment of China's commerce ministry, with a staff of about 60, in charge ofa chokepoint for global manufacturing.
The ministry did not immediately respond to Reuters'questions sent by fax.
SeveralEuropean auto suppliers shutdown production lines this week after running out of supplies. WhileChina's April curbs coincided with a broader package of retaliation againstWashington's tariffs, the measures apply globally.
"Beijing has a degree of plausible deniability – noone can prove China is doing this on purpose," said Noah Barkin, senioradviser at Rhodium Group, a China-focused U.S. thinktank.
"But the rate of approvals is a pretty clear signalthat China is sending a message, exerting pressure to prevent tradenegotiations with the U.S. leading to additional technology control."
China mines about 70% of the world's rare earths but hasa virtual monopoly on refining and processing.
Even if the pace of export approvals quickens as Trumpsuggested, the new system gives Beijing unprecedented glimpses of how companiesin a supply chain deploy the rare earths it processes, European and U.S.executives have warned.
Other governments are denied that insight because of thecomplexity of supply chain operations.
Forexample, hundreds of Japanese suppliers are believed to need China to approveexport licences for rare earth magnets in coming weeks to avert productiondisruptions, said a person who has lobbied on their behalf with Beijing.
"It's sharpening China's scalpel," said aU.S.-based executive at a company seeking to piece together an alternativesupply chain who sought anonymity.
"It'snot a way to oversee the export of magnets, but a way to gain influence andadvantage over America."
DECADES IN THE MAKING
Fears that China could weaponise its global supply chainstrength first emerged after its temporary ban of rare earth exports to Japanin 2010, following a territorial dispute.
As early as 1992, former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping wasquoted as saying, "The Middle East has oil, China has rare earths."
Beijing's landmark 2020 Export Control Law broadenedcurbs to cover any items affecting national security, from critical goods andmaterials to technology and data.
China has since built its own sanctions power whilepouring the equivalent of billions of dollars into developing workarounds inresponse to U.S. policies.
In 2022, the United States put sweeping curbs on sales ofadvanced semiconductor chips and tools to China over concerns the technologycould advance Beijing's military power.
But the move failed to halt China's development ofadvanced chips and artificial intelligence, analysts have said.
Beijing punched back a year later by introducing exportlicenses for gallium and germanium, and some graphite products. Exports to theUnited States of the two critical minerals, along with germanium, were bannedlast December.
In February China restrictedexports of five more metals key to the defence and clean energy industries.
Analysts face a hard task in tracking the pace of China'sapprovals following the Trump-Xi call.
"It's virtually impossible to know what percentageof requests for non-military end users get approved because the data is notpublic and companies don't want to publicly confirm either way," said CoryCombs, a critical minerals analyst with Trivium, a policy consultancy focusedon China.
(Reporting by Laurie Chen in Beijing; additionalreporting by Michael Martina in Washington and Victoria Waldersee in Berlin;editing by Kevin Krolicki and Clarence Fernandez)
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