I've been in GBR for about 4 years. I'm underwater like so many others. I wouldn't call myself an expert but the numbers don't usually lie.
Given the quality of the overall resource and Ironbark I would have predicted a much higher share price right now, so my calculus has been wrong for quite a while.
The rules on value multiples that I learned and lived by for many years have been blown up in recent years, as has my super fund. I think this has a lot to do with influences on markets (political and economic) that are there now that did not used to be there
The emerging resource sector has been destroyed over the last 4 years.
I saw a presentation from Lion Selection Group that makes sense to me.
https://lionselection.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Lion-Selection-Group-Apr-2025.pdfThe fact is that GBR has a lot of gold in the ground and the gold market is at all time highs. Therefore it should be valuable.
I don't know the board, but it has taken a long time to move towards mining. It appears to have been somewhat moribund.
Today's announcement indicates a change/acceleration in the direction of monetising Ironbark which is welcome.
The question remains does the board want to mine or be taken over? Mining will realise the value in the ground. A takeover will be below par IMO.
Long term if they go to mining Ironbark soon, fund their exploration out of that revenue and have their 1.5million ounces (likely I think) then the Von Rico arithmetic at A$5,000 an ounce makes sense to me. He seems to know what he's talking about.
What do we say the cost to get the gold is? Let's go high and say $2,500 an ounce with toll processing. That is a conservative number I think, but again I am not an expert.
1.5million x $2,500 = $3.75Bn
You can choose your own discount rate and time period. Say 20 years at 7%?
Divide by shares on issue, say 1 billion. I get well over $1 a share at a minimum. That's a long way (>10x) better than where I bought in.
I'm sticking with it in the hope that the board makes some good decisions to accelerate mining while also accepting that the more gold they find the better...
Once they make concrete moves toward mining Ironbark then there should be a substantial value uplift, but to what I don't know, 20+ cents looks low but that is just a guess. There is plenty of competition around for capital and it moves around a lot these days.
