Ok, back from a 2-2 draw in my son's soccer game, and now exclusively focused on MIN!
Below are the new rates and totals, 33.3 m t pa since June 1.
I'm counting Montebello in the total, as apparently it is out there unloading as i speak, whilst Rosily is in port loading. So they'll get at least 4 done today, already, possibly more.
As further proof i'm confident these totals are quite accurate, they have loaded and sailed 7 ships since June 1, or 1.32m tonnes worth, over 14.5 days = 33.2 m tonnes per annum.
The rate is 35.4 m tonnes since 6 June.I'm calling this now, as that is what i do, my feel is these rates are going to continue at 35 m t pa and possibly build even higher over the next 5 days. The reason is the wind forecast is low, nothing above 20 km per hour until at least next saturday, and no rain is forecast over the week either.
It just feels to me the rates are continuing to build in this good weather, and its probably caused by a few factors:
- the triple truck capacity is gradually increasing from 91 trucks to 140;
- they are probably getting a few more contractor trucks and drivers to;
- each day the haul rd improves a little bit, there's an extra km per day where they can go 65 km per hour rather than 45 km per hour on the upgraded road
- driver and transhipper experience. I think in most jobs you improve productivity about 10% or more over the first 3 months of doing it. So my feel is the cycle times are continuing to improve across the whole supply chain as people just gain more experience with the job they're doing, so it all just becomes 2nd nature after they've done the task for the 100th time or more.
It's all very exciting in my view.
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| MinRes Onslow estimated EBITDA per tonne Aus $ (mining + mining services) | 31.6 | |
| Date since | Total days | Rate shipped per day tonnes | Total transhipper unloads | Total shipped (tonnes million) | Rate per year(million tonnes) | Free cash flowFY 26 Onslow(FOB AUD 58), $ m | |
| 05-May-25 | 41.5 | 73735 | 153 | 3.06 | 26.9 | $851 | |
| 11-May-25 | 35.5 | 76620 | 136 | 2.72 | 28.0 | $884 | |
| 20-May-25 | 26.5 | 77736 | 103 | 2.06 | 28.4 | $897 | |
| 01-Jun-25 | 14.5 | 91034 | 66 | 1.32 | 33.3 | $1,050 | |
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| Unloads by Transhipper since 5 May 2025 |
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| Iron Ore price US$ | |
| Airlie | Coolibah | Montebello | Rosily | Peak |
| $93.85 | |
| 37 | 36 | 37 | 39 | 3.5 |
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(20min delay)