no, because factoring these probabilities will result in nil investment taken. Just invest in the index and sell every time theres a new thing, like a meteor an alien invasion or how about a pandemic
one that will wipe out the economy as we know it, sell everything in the price action panic right - risk management 101 right? because the share price was way down which means the economy is wiped out yeah? it's not that the market has over-reacted to a low probability outcome yet again.
hmm, where have I seen this story before? Oh, I know....... Every stock ever, when they swing from: Peak pessimism (BOT PRICE RIGHT NOW at 30c) to Peak Optimism (BOT PRICE in 9 months when it overshoots $1.50 and its March 2026)
just saying, there's varying degrees of probability and I count your bearish scenario as 3rd standard deviation from probable to the negative and I don't operate at that level on a stock-by-stock basis. I do that by having multiple stocks in the portfolio that account for highly improbable negative outcomes in one particular stock.
Similarly, 25,000 new subs by June 30 is 3 standard dev to the upside.
BOT Price at posting:
30.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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