I think "all the problem lies" as you put it, with your own view contrary to the broker estimates - and those done by several of us independently - that come up with roughly the same numbers.
Your fundamental flaw, as I'd see it, is your thinking that current prices are a problem. As Petra puts it "Current prices remain attractive versus historical levels." And Metro have substantially reduced their unit costs.
They won't be repaying debt this quarter. The debt principal repayment schedule starts next quarter. Not this. So long as they build cashflow this quarter and keep up production rates, they are very good at current spot pricing.
Metro have not "locked higher price" as you put it, except for this quarter. But again, the likely future prices around current spot level (less quality discount) aren't a problem. They've not commented on their next quarter contract prices yet, except to say they see the market is still strong. I suggest their idea of strong, along with all the brokers, and others here, is comfortable with the sort of spot prices we are currently seeing. You differ, but you be you.
Don't worry, be happy.
MMI Price at posting:
6.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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