BOT (ASX) Bot Chart

Originally posted by manishv: ↑
Here’s a detailed month-by-month model I built that leads me to a personal year-end target of 77–78c — based on a realistic cumulative patient count of 10,000–11,000. I think it’s fair to project ~1,000 new patients per week, which gets us to 16,000 by December (with 4,000 already reported).

But let’s not sugarcoat things:
This assumes a measured patient ramp, refill behaviour that aligns with historical norms, and no perfect retention.
If we do hit those numbers, then yes — we’re well on course for a material share price re-rate.
But if we don’t, the market will focus squarely on execution gaps — not "potential" shouted the loudest on a forum.

At the end of the day, none of us know for sure how the numbers look like. We're all hopeful.

But expectations aren’t outcomes, and even the most bullish commentary (BOD saying bla blah)from the company is still promotion unless it’s backed by monthly data that confirms the model. Every barbershop says business is booming — it’s the numbers that matter.

1 Month New Patients Cumulative Patients Refill Rate Refill Scripts Scripts Sold = New Patients (1 script each) + Refill Scripts Cumulative Scripts Scripts per Patient (Cumulative) = Cumulative Scripts ÷ Cumulative Patients Price per Script Gross A.99M) ÷ Q1 scripts (5,508) = 907 Price per Script Net (AUD) Net Revenue (AUD) Cumulative Gross Revenue (AUD) Cumulative Net Revenue (AUD) Market Cap @7X Shares Outstanding Projected Share Price
2 Feb-25 1,621 1,621 77% 0 1,621 1,621 1.00 AUD 907 AUD 680 AUD 1,102,280 AUD 1,470,247 AUD 1,102,280 AUD 7,715,960 1,833,000,000 AUD 0.00
3 Mar-25 2,379 4,000 95% 1,508 3,887 5,508 1.38 AUD 907 AUD 680 AUD 2,643,276 AUD 4,995,910 AUD 3,745,556 AUD 26,218,889 1,833,000,000 AUD 0.01
4 Apr-25 2,474 6,474 95% 2,729 5,204 10,712 1.65 AUD 907 AUD 680 AUD 3,538,455 AUD 9,715,584 AUD 7,284,010 AUD 50,988,073 1,954,212,122 AUD 0.03
5 May-25 2,573 9,047 95% 5,037 7,610 18,322 2.03 AUD 907 AUD 680 AUD 5,174,940 AUD 16,618,042 AUD 12,458,951 AUD 87,212,655 1,954,212,122 AUD 0.04
6 Jun-25 2,676 11,723 95% 7,437 10,113 28,435 2.43 AUD 907 AUD 680 AUD 6,876,885 AUD 25,790,593 AUD 19,335,836 AUD 135,350,853 1,954,212,122 AUD 0.07
7 Jul-25 2,783 14,506 95% 9,933 12,716 41,151 2.84 AUD 907 AUD 680 AUD 8,646,908 AUD 37,324,043 AUD 27,982,744 AUD 195,879,209 1,954,212,122 AUD 0.10
8 Aug-25 2,894 17,401 95% 12,529 15,423 56,574 3.25 AUD 907 AUD 680 AUD 10,487,732 AUD 51,312,826 AUD 38,470,476 AUD 269,293,332 1,954,212,122 AUD 0.14
9 Sept-25 3,010 20,411 90% 15,228 18,239 74,813 3.67 AUD 907 AUD 680 AUD 12,402,188 AUD 67,855,157 AUD 50,872,664 AUD 356,108,651 1,954,212,122 AUD 0.18
10 Oct-25 3,131 23,542 90% 17,891 21,022 95,835 4.07 AUD 907 AUD 680 AUD 14,294,813 AUD 86,921,915 AUD 65,167,477 AUD 456,172,342 1,954,212,122 AUD 0.23
11 Nov-25 3,256 26,797 85% 20,661 23,916 119,751 4.47 AUD 907 AUD 680 AUD 16,263,143 AUD 108,614,077 AUD 81,430,620 AUD 570,014,342 1,954,212,122 AUD 0.29
12 Dec-25 3,386 30,184 85% 23,384 26,770 146,521 4.85 AUD 907 AUD 680 AUD 18,203,765 AUD 132,894,688 AUD 99,634,386 AUD 697,440,699 1,954,212,122 AUD 0.36
13 Jan-26 3,522 33,705 80% 26,217 29,738 176,259 5.23 AUD 907 AUD 680 AUD 20,222,013 AUD 159,867,284 AUD 119,856,398 AUD 838,994,787 1,954,212,122 AUD 0.43
14 Feb-26 3,662 37,367 80% 28,993 32,656 208,915 5.59 AUD 907 AUD 680 AUD 22,205,864 AUD 189,485,988 AUD 142,062,262 AUD 994,435,834 1,954,212,122 AUD 0.51
15 Mar-26 3,809 41,176 75% 31,881 35,690 244,605 5.94 AUD 907 AUD 680 AUD 24,269,069 AUD 221,856,643 AUD 166,331,331 AUD 1,164,319,317 2,012,838,486 AUD 0.58
16 Apr-26 3,961 45,137 75% 34,701 38,662 283,267 6.28 AUD 907 AUD 680 AUD 26,290,282 AUD 256,923,240 AUD 192,621,613 AUD 1,348,351,293 2,012,838,486 AUD 0.67
17 May-26 4,120 49,257 75% 37,634 41,753 325,021 6.60 AUD 907 AUD 680 AUD 28,392,344 AUD 294,793,617 AUD 221,013,957 AUD 1,547,097,701 2,012,838,486 AUD 0.77
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Thanks for sharing. Those figures arent Lined up quite right but I get the gist…

I am largely in disagreement with you on those customer numbers and Market Cap valuation.

7x Nett revenue. I disagree.. I think MC should be more like 20-30x revenue.

And 4000 new patients per month in 12 months from now. At median growth rate using Solodyn and Ecklock as a comparison, BOT is doing about 40-45k new monthly scripts In May-June 2026..

So I would add 3x market cap and 10x new customers.. That gets me to $20 per share at June 2026. I’m usually wrong so let’s give it a 75% discount and we still get $5 per share and plenty of fat for a BP after a TO..

IMO

No.	Vol.	Price($)
19	1133673	29.0¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

1133673

29.0¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
29.5¢	161846	3

Price($)

Vol.

No.

29.5¢

161846

No.	Vol.	Price($)
18	1046673	0.290
15	786253	0.285
32	603402	0.280
14	402117	0.275
12	498310	0.270

No.

Vol.

Price($)

1046673

0.290

786253

0.285

603402

0.280

402117

0.275

498310

0.270

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.295	161846	3
0.300	323000	4
0.305	658609	4
0.310	748115	11
0.315	385974	6

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.295

161846

0.300

323000

0.305

658609

0.310

748115

0.315

385974

(20min delay)
Last 29.0¢		Change -0.010(3.33%)		Mkt cap ! $568.6M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
30.5¢	30.5¢	29.0¢	$1.517M	5.072M

Bot Chart, page-21520

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1		Month	New Patients	Cumulative Patients	Refill Rate	Refill Scripts	Scripts Sold = New Patients (1 script each) + Refill Scripts	Cumulative Scripts	Scripts per Patient (Cumulative) = Cumulative Scripts ÷ Cumulative Patients	Price per Script Gross A.99M) ÷ Q1 scripts (5,508) = 907	Price per Script Net (AUD)	Net Revenue (AUD)	Cumulative Gross Revenue (AUD)	Cumulative Net Revenue (AUD)	Market Cap @7X	Shares Outstanding	Projected Share Price
2	Feb-25	1,621	1,621	77%	0	1,621	1,621	1.00	AUD 907	AUD 680	AUD 1,102,280	AUD 1,470,247	AUD 1,102,280	AUD 7,715,960	1,833,000,000	AUD 0.00
3	Mar-25	2,379	4,000	95%	1,508	3,887	5,508	1.38	AUD 907	AUD 680	AUD 2,643,276	AUD 4,995,910	AUD 3,745,556	AUD 26,218,889	1,833,000,000	AUD 0.01
4	Apr-25	2,474	6,474	95%	2,729	5,204	10,712	1.65	AUD 907	AUD 680	AUD 3,538,455	AUD 9,715,584	AUD 7,284,010	AUD 50,988,073	1,954,212,122	AUD 0.03
5	May-25	2,573	9,047	95%	5,037	7,610	18,322	2.03	AUD 907	AUD 680	AUD 5,174,940	AUD 16,618,042	AUD 12,458,951	AUD 87,212,655	1,954,212,122	AUD 0.04
6	Jun-25	2,676	11,723	95%	7,437	10,113	28,435	2.43	AUD 907	AUD 680	AUD 6,876,885	AUD 25,790,593	AUD 19,335,836	AUD 135,350,853	1,954,212,122	AUD 0.07
7	Jul-25	2,783	14,506	95%	9,933	12,716	41,151	2.84	AUD 907	AUD 680	AUD 8,646,908	AUD 37,324,043	AUD 27,982,744	AUD 195,879,209	1,954,212,122	AUD 0.10
8	Aug-25	2,894	17,401	95%	12,529	15,423	56,574	3.25	AUD 907	AUD 680	AUD 10,487,732	AUD 51,312,826	AUD 38,470,476	AUD 269,293,332	1,954,212,122	AUD 0.14
9	Sept-25	3,010	20,411	90%	15,228	18,239	74,813	3.67	AUD 907	AUD 680	AUD 12,402,188	AUD 67,855,157	AUD 50,872,664	AUD 356,108,651	1,954,212,122	AUD 0.18
10	Oct-25	3,131	23,542	90%	17,891	21,022	95,835	4.07	AUD 907	AUD 680	AUD 14,294,813	AUD 86,921,915	AUD 65,167,477	AUD 456,172,342	1,954,212,122	AUD 0.23
11	Nov-25	3,256	26,797	85%	20,661	23,916	119,751	4.47	AUD 907	AUD 680	AUD 16,263,143	AUD 108,614,077	AUD 81,430,620	AUD 570,014,342	1,954,212,122	AUD 0.29
12	Dec-25	3,386	30,184	85%	23,384	26,770	146,521	4.85	AUD 907	AUD 680	AUD 18,203,765	AUD 132,894,688	AUD 99,634,386	AUD 697,440,699	1,954,212,122	AUD 0.36
13	Jan-26	3,522	33,705	80%	26,217	29,738	176,259	5.23	AUD 907	AUD 680	AUD 20,222,013	AUD 159,867,284	AUD 119,856,398	AUD 838,994,787	1,954,212,122	AUD 0.43
14	Feb-26	3,662	37,367	80%	28,993	32,656	208,915	5.59	AUD 907	AUD 680	AUD 22,205,864	AUD 189,485,988	AUD 142,062,262	AUD 994,435,834	1,954,212,122	AUD 0.51
15	Mar-26	3,809	41,176	75%	31,881	35,690	244,605	5.94	AUD 907	AUD 680	AUD 24,269,069	AUD 221,856,643	AUD 166,331,331	AUD 1,164,319,317	2,012,838,486	AUD 0.58
16	Apr-26	3,961	45,137	75%	34,701	38,662	283,267	6.28	AUD 907	AUD 680	AUD 26,290,282	AUD 256,923,240	AUD 192,621,613	AUD 1,348,351,293	2,012,838,486	AUD 0.67
17	May-26	4,120	49,257	75%	37,634	41,753	325,021	6.60	AUD 907	AUD 680	AUD 28,392,344	AUD 294,793,617	AUD 221,013,957	AUD 1,547,097,701	2,012,838,486	AUD 0.77

Bot Chart, page-21520

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