Abstract
We apply standard demographic principles of inflows and outflows to estimate the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States, using the best available data, including some that have only recently become available. Our analysis covers the years 1990 to 2016.congress.gov+5netadvisor.org+5nationaleconomicseditorial.com+5
We generate a lower bound for the number of undocumented immigrants using conservative parameter values that underestimate inflows and overestimate outflows. Our lower bound is close to 17 million, 50% higher than the most prominent current estimate of 11.3 million, which is based on survey data and thus different sources and methods. Standard parameter values generate an estimate of 22.8 million undocumented immigrants, twice as large as the current estimate.nationaleconomicseditorial.com+1mitsloan.mit.edu+1
We also conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine how much the estimates vary with changes in the model parameters. Our analysis suggests that the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States is larger than previously thought.laist.com+1mitsloan.mit.edu+1
Key Conclusion from the Study:
“Our best estimate of the number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. is 22.1 million.
The 95% probability range is 16.2 million to 29.5 million.”“This estimate is approximately twice as large as the widely accepted current estimate, which is based on survey data.”“Our analysis suggests that the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States is larger than previously believed, and growing due to inflows exceeding outflows.”
Citation
Fazel-Zarandi, M. M., Feinstein, J. S., & Kaplan, E. H. (2018). The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990 to 2016. PLOS ONE, 13(9), e0201193. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201193dailycaller.com+9insights.som.yale.edu+9mitsloan.mit.edu+9
