Uncover the TBN Matrix

You’re feeling it, aren’t you? Thatstatic in the air. The dissonance behind the other TBN threads. Everythingpresented as perfect and polished — but the deeper you look, the more thecracks show.

You took the red pill. You're here becauseyou're done with glossy PR narratives. You want the code behind the illusion.The truth behind Beetaloo. Buy, sell, or hold — but do it awake.

TBN could be real. Could be the prophecyfulfilled. Or it could be just another line of elegant deception — a system feeding on blind belief while the share price drips down the screen.

Some things… feel like glitches in the TBNmatrix:
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1) “Approaching FID”?
That’s the cover story. But look closer. This isn’t a proven development. It seems more like ahigh-risk, capital-hungry appraisal project camouflaged with uneconomic near-termproduction. $100's of millions already invested. Still no 10k ft lateral flowing. No commercial flowrates against TBN’s real-world costs. An NT regulatory landscape scarred by the 144 costly Pepper recommendations and only getting worse as the Beetaloo progresses...

2) The choke game.
They restricted the IP30 flows at the start through smaller chokes. Claim it’s forbetter EUR. But in reality? Shouldn't they mention that it 1) boosts ending flowrates, AND 2) reduces the decline rate — and as a result can make comparisons to other shaleproduction curves look better than they are. Will they play the same game withIP90? Watch closely.

3) The endless future narrative.
LNG dreams. Data centre hype. Magical cost reductions. The more they talk aboutthe future, the less they show you the present. Is it sleight-of-hand. Misdirection. all while the share price floats — just longenough to raise capital (again)?

4) The speed illusion.
Fast drilling is central to their low-cost story. But with a 17% drillingsuccess rate recently (0.5 full laterals off 3 attempted), something doesn’t add up. Can you have 10,000 ft, fully fraccedlaterals at their depth and still drill at high speed? Or are we being shown acode sequence that simply doesn’t execute in the real world?

5) Misaligned allies.
HP and Liberty were paid handsomely — in TBN shares — to enter the system.Sure, they want the SP to rise, but their ROI lives in USD. High AU$ drilling costs?That’s likely to be TBN’s burden. These aren’t benevolent agents — they’re just playingtheir side of the game.

6) The Mystical Market.
The narrative from the company and paid analysts? East coast gas buyers,double-digit prices, boundless demand. But the pipeline transport cost to getthere? About $5/GJ based on published tariffs. That leaves actual gas price received in the single digits.And just like solar crashes electricity prices on a sunny day, Beetaloo successwould flood the NT gas market — pushing prices down, not up. You can’thave high production and high prices in a small market. Which means thisBasin only works at export scale… and given the NT’s insane O&G regulationsand inherent remote development cost disadvantages, that vision could be more smokethan substance.

So we’re here in the code. Searching. Somesee Hope. Some of us are seeing glitches. Others might spot something new.Either way — we’re not in dreamland anymore.

Welcome tothe mystery that is the Beetaloo Matrix.

Feel free to drop yourthoughts. Share your knowledge. Help decode the Beetaloo matrix.