News Articles, page-7

You are most welcome PZ99.

I thought others in the same boat as myself (without a subscription) may not get to read the articles and with the issue so current I'd thought I post it. I can't guarantee posting future articles as it's usually a hit or miss if I can access them from the news site.


There is something else I have been thinking of sharing, and with the lack of commentary from mainstream analyst I think its something long term shareholders (such as yourself) should be aware of.

In my earlier posts on Arcturus Therapeutics, I mentioned that CSL will very possibly need to make a final milestone payment of $US4.3B to Arcturus in 2028 upon the first commercial sale of Kostaive (mRNA Covid vaccine) in the US. As I understand it, (and I sincerely hope to be proven WRONG!) that $US4.3B payment is an R&D expense which will go straight to the P&L. That means, in 2028 CSL could quite possibly report its first loss since floating on the exchange. But I am sure CSL will do its best to hide it and call it an extraordinary item.

Obviously, any number of scenarios could play out.

Bear case
While CSL is on track to make over $US4B profits by 2028, they won't have enough revenues to make up the $US4.3B expense or they just manage to break even but report a huge drop in profits.

Bull case
Due to complacency and hesitancy in vaccine uptake we lose herd immunity in the years leading up to 2028 and thus there is a huge outbreak in Covid and influzena such that Seqirus is printing money.

Interesting tidbit, in the 4th quarter of 2024 alone, Pfizer made $US4.1B from its covid vaccine.

Note, Arcturus / CSL's covid vaccine is a much, much better vaccine that has a higher safety profile and a longer lasting immunity response than Pfizer's covid vaccine.

Another interesting tidbit, Seqirus is partnering with Esperion to commercialise a non statin cholesterol drug in Australia and New Zealand. Not sure what that means with the research undertaken on CSL112. Maybe they haven't abandoned it afterall.

Esperion Partners with CSL Seqirus to Commercialize NEXLETOL and NEXLIZET.pdf

Whatever happens, I'm in it for the long haul.


I intend to get clarification on the accounting treatment of the $US4.3B milestone payment from the board and auditors at the upcoming AGM.