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20/02/05
09:58
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re: oil prices to fall? why?
That verdict of the Economist isn't worth much with that condition attached.
Part of the oil price is exactly that: fear that the supply may be disrupted.
It is no different than saying: it will remain dry all year, provided it doesn't rain!
Some 5 months or so ago, I did suggest that the medium term price for oil could be $45. That is $45+-/$5 (One has to allow for deviation, a band).
Sofar, that prediction did quite well ($45-$50, on the high side of $45).
Gerry
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