M4M macro metals limited

Share price. What is fair value?, page-2

  1. 7,772 Posts.
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    Looking at the pipeline that the company was forced to disclose in the cleansing notice, I've applied a probability score to each opportunity and then calculated the share of revenue attributable to Macro. I then applied a range of EBIT/Revenue ratios based on small-medium mining services providers (between 8-12% EBIT).

    I have also plucked out only three opportunities that I ranked as higher probability (combined attributable revenue of $160M). Applying the lowest 8% EBIT assumption to those opportunities, I get a risked $12.8M EBIT.

    What would Macro be worth if it produced $12.8M EBIT and had a number of other good opportunities in the pipeline (and had a history of converting the opps into contracts)?

    I would start with a low EV/EBIT multiple of say 5. That would provide a rough valuation of $64M. If we use a higher EBIT conversion of 10% then we get $80M.

    I've used really conservative assumptions and without any insights into the pipeline, I only used what sound like the three more mature opps. If they land more, then obviously that's upside.

    Based on this, do I feel Macro is undervalued at $20M? Yeah I do. Do we have enough in the pipeline to warrant a MC of $20M - yeah I do but we need to convert deals.

    If we pull off these deals and execute on the strategy of deploying free cash into our own mining projects,
    we're onto a winner. High risk for sure but the reward is also very high.
 
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(20min delay)
Last
0.6¢
Change
0.000(0.00%)
Mkt cap ! $23.86M
Open High Low Value Volume
0.6¢ 0.6¢ 0.6¢ $1.514K 252.2K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
21 10071416 0.6¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
0.7¢ 3002551 6
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Last trade - 09.59am 28/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ?
M4M (ASX) Chart
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