risked value of range, page-15

imo, its now overpriced.

dont mistake those calcs on "potential" resources in the ground, for real money, or company value.

IGV (in ground value) (if proved commercial) does not equal company value.

You need to consider what actual earnings are on, and projected, for when. Tell me its going to earn xxx Million NPAT in 2013? 2015?? and then you can start to value it on an earnings basis/ cash flow model.

The current mc value, has a lot of speculation in it, and a very tall poppy over the base value of the texan assets.

Remember when the soviets invaded georgia?

Remember when puntland changed its governement, and put the whole deal in limbo for another year?

My point is, those assets in the ground, given political risk, aren't bankable earnings, yet.

Also, an alternative valuation, would be, on take over valuation.

You have to consider, what NPAT $ each barrel of proven commercially extractable reserves are worth. Take out taxes, and royalties, take out opex etc, and then discount that to a buyer, who wont pay its full value up front.

ie, x/bl over 30 years, you wont get paid x/bl from a buyer in one pay cheque as a take over.

IMO, think the ballpark $5-10/bl, of proven commercially recoverable reserves.

IMO, silly money is now being thrown at it.

IMO, Take profit if you hold, and free carry if you can.

If RRS had any brains, they'd be doing a capitol raising to capitolise on the current price.