on the jpyen

  1. 1,937 Posts.
    BOJ notices - http://www.boj.or.jp/en/

    Notably -
    Enhancement of Monetary Easing (Announced at 2:48 p.m.)
    http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2011/k110314a.pdf

    :quote: The Bank of Japan will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0 to 0.1 percent.

    Compared to the USD OIS rate of 0.14%, the primary dealers of lending have ultra cheap sources of short term lending. This is likely to remain for some time - it encourages lending.

    With all respect to those still missing, when you look at the devastation of the Japanese communities, there is a tremendous amount of cleaning up and sorting of materials while no doubt recovering 1000's of bodies. This could take at least 3 months before serious reconstruction can begin. The amount of materials to be recycled or dumped is staggering.

    Also, my guess is a 10m high sea wall will be built the length of the east coast. Large capital investment into Japan will need to be encouraged (hence BoJ) - with at least housing before the next Japanese winter. Maybe some of those affected find accomodation outside Japan for the moment - like a billet setup - to avoid the winter.

    I don't know if this is/was insured in any fashion - but can't imagine it. If so, insurance funds will be looking for working capital. I guess we'll find out where they get this from.

    50,000 people need new homes, power and water, with them will likely come necessary added protections - so worry about the economics later. Something that is going to have to extend already extended budgets over a few years to come.

    Meanwhile, the rest of the world rolls on in some fashion. But this should be a large reconstruction operation once it is underway - the the aim of preventing future occurences built into the design.

    The impact is not enough to change larger global trends in my view ... assuming they elect to go this way.

    Thinking aloud to get some idea of scop and time ...
 
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.