re: Ann: JPR establishes Triassic flow rates ... Jupiter Energy receives "speculative buy" from Southern Cross Equities
Below is an extract from a report produced by Southern Cross Equities.
Twelve month price target: $0.14
Last traded: $0.53
Jupiter Energy (ASX: JPR) is a small oil company operating in Kazakhstan.
The company has found oil in its first two wells which are located on a very oily trend, including fields over 1 billion barrels in size.
We are not suggesting that JPR has found anything as big as that, but the trend is your friend!
Following a site visit to understand local working conditions, we initiate research coverage with a SPECULATIVE BUY and a price target of $0.14.
Kazakhstan oil industry is on the up:
One of the most successful oil exploration regions of the world in the last couple of decades has been Kazakhstan with discoveries like Eni's Kashagan at 9-16B bbl and Chevron's Tengiz at 6-9B bbl.
It may not have had the same headlines as Brazil or West Africa but this country is likely to double production to 3mmbbl/day this decade and become a Top 5 oil producer.
Jupiter is not in the big league... yet:
JPR owns one block in the Mangistau basin of Kazakhstan where they have drilled two successful oil wells.
Reserves are still being determined, but we think a 25mmbbl field is very likely, with upside to over 100mmbbl through exploration and license extensions.
A lack of market recognition brought the well credentialed Waterford Group (backed by Russian oil money) onto the share register last year, strengthening the Board and management.
We initiate coverage of JPR with a Spec Buy recommendation and a price target of $0.14/share.
There are uncertainties about the production outlook and ultimate reserves recovery but we are excited about the outlook for the stock and the country.
We believe that JPR is a very attractive investment opportunity for a number of reasons:
- Compelling valuation argument with 191% upside to our $0.14 target and 124% upside to $0.11 if we only value the indicative 2P reserves of 25mmbbl. Current EV is a low $2.56/bbl.
- Excellent opportunity to participate in the strong oil industry growth of Kazakhstan.
- Strong Board of Directors supported by the Russian backed Waterford Group who took a 27% stake in the company last year.
- Highly professional management and operational team located in the oil city of Aktau on the Caspian coast.
- Full ownership, operatorship and focus on key asset of Block 31, located on a very oily trend of the Mangistau basin.
- Excellent oil discovery confirmed through two oil wells that have intersected oil columns over 100m gross with 60-69m of net pay. Oil-inplace is around 100mmbbl and we have assumed 25mmbbl recoverable.
Higher recovery rates are possible through fraccing and horizontal drilling.
- Imminent testing of both oil wells following fracc tests. Flow rates may be higher than we have allowed for in our cash flow modelling.
- Longer term growth opportunities through exploration on Block 31, license extensions and good new venture opportunities in Kazakhstan through the well connected Directors and management.
mMMMMMMmmm, maybe should buy now, think I will.
TTR
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