st.paddy's thursday, page-4

I am in 2 minds

The bull case : we are entering into what is most often a very bullish time of year. last year after hefty falls in Jan we then had that spectacular climb to a mid april top. Even in the darkest days of the GFC the market had a short term bottom on March 17th 2008 and then we saw a rally into May 19th that convinced many that the worst was over. 2 other notabale march lows were in 2009 and 2003.

The bear case : I cannot get past the Armstrong low looming mid year. The 1.618 time extension of the US GFC bear falls on EXACTLY the low of Armstrongs 8.6 year cycle. For us in Oz that same 1.618 extension comes in on Saturday May 21st so say Friday May 20th ( remembering our bear was 495 days as opposed to the US 512 days). That would be 92 days from the Feb 17th top which has now proved significant. 91 days was always a significant period for Volt and it is 13 weeks so there is a fib connection. If markets were to fall here and in the US into these dates then in the future we will look back and point to it as proof that maybe Armstrong was onto something. May 21 was the 2010 low for the XJO and May 19th this year will be the 3rd anniverary of the May 08 rally top.

Conclusions : I think the market will surprise everyone and bottom soon and then rise strongly into May but if not then perhaps from here they will fall much further into May. I hope that helps :)