80 cents by december...., page-118

CB

read all the anns from the last 3 months carefully. you will see that MNM have delivered each and every promised step, in sequence, in the lead up to the potential company making decision on development of the BM brown coal project.

the next steps (following from the anns I mentioned) are to get the moisture reduction percentages on the bulk sample. the 2 tonnes of CHTD treated Maddingley coal that was successfully processed early this month is more than adequate to provide that data. some punters seem to have wanted MNM to blast through the full 20 tonnes of Maddingley coal that was shipped to exergens pilot plant at Beaconsfield to get this data. this is based on a lack of understanding of the CHTD process - in simple terms if 2 tonnes work in the pilot scale plannt, then so will 4, if 4 tonnes work, so will 8 - etc up to several hundred thousand tonnes per week on a commercial scale plant.

we are told that the sample was sent for moisture reduction testing on 3 March 2011. these results should be known in the next few days. assuming they are successful, then the next step is to get final grant of EL5294. Until that is granted by the DPI MNM can't test drill the BM ground around the existing Maddingley brown coal mine. But those drill programs have clearly already been mapped out and financed by the exergen/mnm JV (read the anns). they obviously think the EL will be granted pretty soon, or the pre planning is a waste of money.

These two sets of data (moisture reduction and drilling results at BM) are the key to a decision on whether BM is a suitable location to build the exergen 50tph demonstration plant. if the demo plant is a success then the JV will make a decision on the viability of a multi million tpa CHTD BM plant to produce coal for export, predominantly to TATA under its 8 million tpa offtake agreement. Vertigo told us (on this thread) that he believed $55 a tonne price on thermal coal was required to make a business case stack up for the BM project. Thermal coal is well north of $100 per tonne now, and nobody is suggesting it is going back anywhere near $55 soon. ($155 maybe...)

The calculations (earlier on this thread) about revenue to MNM from even a single 12 million tpa coal plant at BM are in the hundreds of millions of dollars per annum. at even 10% of these figures MNM's SP will be worth well over 50c.

MNM has 2 other well advanced black coal projects at Mt Mulligan and Texas - potentially 1 billion tonnes plus of black coal in ground.

It has 3 other well advanced gold and silver projects, and phosphate tenements between MAK and POZ that may be worth $0, or may be worth $20 million on a sale or JV given phosphate is set to spike again.

all for a MC of $20 million? This aberration of an MC is the product of over excited ST traders overshooting on the upside in January (29c) and overshooting on the downside (11c) today. It also explains why the buy stack has blown out to 15 million+ today, and the sell stack looks more and more like the dying embers of a cappers bonfire.

DYOR