st.paddy's thursday, page-22

BD

I think you are early in buying mainly because I think the US market has further to fall. Perhaps another 5-6%. So far they have fallen around 6.2% while the Australian market was down about 9% from its recent peak to its recent low.

US growth estimates are being reduced, profits margins are being squeezed by rising commodity prices and higher energy prices will act as a tax on consumers in the US. Also, will the US do its usual sell in May and go away or is it doing it now?

The Oz market will be negatively impacted by the events in Japan, China's slowing growth, and our consumers are over their heads in collective debt. All it really needs is for the Chinese housing market to take a turn for the worse and our miners will feel some pain to their bloated profits.

I would not be a buyer now. High risk in the sense that the market is likely to trend lower, perhaps all the way back to May 2010 level.

So maybe you will squirm a lot more in 3 months time and feel like selling your current bargains, which may turn out to be excellent buys "in the long run", whatever that means.

I am hoping for QE3, QE4 etc in the US, as well as further stimulus measures to make Obama look good for re-election.

loki (just a simple gold speculator who is missing the input from Lord Volt and the other absent TA gurus)