big us nuclear program gets green light!!!, page-19

Additional website shows the development of 45 new countries - Update 4.3.2011

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf102.html

Site has considerable info

Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries
(Updated 4 March 2011)

Over 45 countries are actively considering embarking upon nuclear power programs.
These range from sophisticated economies to developing nations.
The front runners are Iran, UAE, Turkey, Italy, Vietnam and Jordan.

Nuclear power is under serious consideration in over 45 countries which do not currently have it (in a few, consideration is not necessarily at government level). For countries in bold, nuclear power prospects are more fully dealt with in specific country papers:

In Europe: Italy, Albania, Serbia, Croatia, Portugal, Norway, Poland, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Ireland, Turkey.
In the Middle East and North Africa: Iran, Gulf states including UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar & Kuwait, Yemen, Israel, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, Morocco, Sudan.
In west, central and southern Africa: Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Kenya, Uganda, Namibia.
In South America: Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela.
In central and southern Asia: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka
In SE Asia: Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand.
In east Asia: North Korea
Despite the large number of these emerging countries, they are not expected to contribute very much to the expansion of nuclear capacity in the foreseeable future ? the main growth will come in countries where the technology is already well established. However, in the longer term, the trend to urbanisation in less-developed countries will greatly increase the demand for electricity, and especially that supplied by base-load plants such as nuclear. The pattern of energy demand in these countries will become more like that of Europe, North America and Japan.

Some of the above countries can be classified according to how far their nuclear programs or plans have progressed:

Power reactors under construction: Iran.
Contracts signed, legal and regulatory infrastructure well-developed: UAE, Turkey.
Committed plans, legal and regulatory infrastructure developing: Vietnam, Jordan, Italy.
Well-developed plans but commitment pending: Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, Chile.
Developing plans: Saudi Arabia, Israel, Nigeria, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Morocco, Kuwait.
Discussion as serious policy option: Namibia, Kenya, Mongolia, Philippines, Singapore, Albania, Serbia, Croatia, Estonia & Latvia, Libya, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, Syria, Qatar, Sudan, Venezuela.
Officially not a policy option at present: Australia, New Zealand, Portugal, Norway, Ireland.
A September 2010 report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on International Status and Prospects of Nuclear Power said that some 65 countries without nuclear power plants ?are expressing interest in, considering, or actively planning for nuclear power? at present, after a ?gap of nearly 15 years? in such interest worldwide. Of these 65 un-named countries, it said that 21 are in Asia/Pacific, 21 in Africa, 12 in Europe (mostly eastern Europe), and 11 in Latin America. However, of the 65 interested countries, 31 are not currently planning to build reactors, and 17 of those 31 have grids of less than 5 GW, ?too small to accommodate most of the reactor designs on offer.? The report added that technology options may also be limited for countries whose grids are between 5 GW and 10 GW.

Of the countries planning reactors, at September 2010: 14 ?indicate a strong intention to proceed? with introduction of nuclear power; seven are preparing but haven?t made a final decision, 10 have made a decision and are preparing infrastructure, two have ordered a new nuclear power plant and one has a plant under construction, according to the IAEA assessment (see below re IAEA 'milestone' approach). These are identifiable in our development breakdown above.

In all countries governments need to create the environment for investment in nuclear power, including professional and independent regulatory regime, policies on nuclear waste management and decommissioning, and involvement with international non-proliferation measures and insurance arrangements for third party damage.*

* see WNA papers on Safeguards to Prevent Nuclear Weapons Proliferation, and Liability for Nuclear Damage respectively.

In different countries, institutional arrangements vary. Usually governments are heavily involved in planning, and in developing countries also financing and operation. As emerging nuclear nations lack a strong cadre of nuclear engineers and scientists, construction is often on a turnkey basis, with the reactor vendor assuming all technical and commercial risks in delivering a functioning plant on time and at a particular price. Alternatively the vendor may be set up a consortium to build, own and operate the plant. As the industry becomes more international, new arrangements are likely, including public-private partnerships.

The IAEA has published a small book Considerations to Launch a Nuclear Power Programme (2007 ) which addresses the issues involved in a country deciding upon and implementing a nuclear power program. In particular it looks at those considerations before a decision is made, before construction starts and subsequently. It then briefly covers twelve factors for consideration.

According to the IAEA in mid 2010, 20 new countries expected to have nuclear power on line by 2030.

The IAEA sets out a phased 'milestone' approach to establishing nuclear power capacity in new countries*, applying it to 19 issues. In broad outline (the three milestones underlined):

Pre-project phase 1 (1-3 years) leading to knowledgeable commitment to a nuclear power program, resulting in set up of a Nuclear Power Program Implementing Organisation (NEPIO). This deals with the program, not the particular projects after phase 2.
Project decision-making phase 2 (3-7 years) involving preparatory work after the decision is made and up to inviting bids, with the regulatory body being established. In phase 2 the government role progressively gives way to that of the regulatory body and the owner-operator.
Construction phase 3 (7-10 years) with regulatory body operational, up to commissioning and operation.
* Milestones in the development of national infrastructure for nuclear power (2007), and Evaluation of the national nuclear infrastructure development status (2008).

In 2009 the IAEA began offering Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review (INIR) missions to assess national developments. The first three were to Jordan, Indonesia and Vietnam.

For new entrants to the nuclear industry which are moving towards fuel loading in their first reactor, the World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO) offers pre-startup peer reviews.

In January 2008, the French Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) indicated that it would pay attention to new nuclear power projects in countries with no experience in this area. It said that the development of nuclear industry in a country needs at least 10 to 15 years in order to build up skills in safety and control and to define a regulatory framework. In a June 2008 position paper the five-member commission of ASN said that building the infrastructure needed to safely operate a nuclear power plant required time and that it would be selective about providing assistance. The commissioners said ASN would give priority to countries using French technologies, that it would apply "geophysical, economic, political, social, and technical" criteria, and require countries to be party to relevant international treaties. ASN said it takes at least five years to set up the legal and regulatory infrastructure for a nuclear power program, two to ten years to license a new plant, and about five years to build a power plant. That means a "minimum lead time of 15 years" before a new nuclear power plant can be started up in a country that does not already have the required infrastructure.

These comments relate to France's creation of Agency France Nuclear International (AFNI) under its Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) to provide a vehicle for international assistance. AFNI will be focused on helping to set up structures and systems to enable the establishment of civil nuclear programs in countries wanting to develop them, and will draw on all of France's expertise in this. It will be guided by a steering committee comprising representatives of all the ministries involved (Energy, Foreign Affairs, Industry, Research, etc) as well as representatives of other major French nuclear institutions including the CEA itself and probably ASN, though this is yet to be confirmed.

The rest of this paper documents progress in a number of countries. Where an individual paper on the particular country exists (as indicated), more detail will be found there.