rio still phoning shareholders, page-4

Hi all

What i was meaning by not having fired the last salvo was in relation to achieving the 50.1%...I truly think it is practically (and I mean that literally), impossible to achieve what they are asking unless they get the support of either CSN or Tata. It is extremely likely that enough punters will sit on their hands either deliberately or accidentally...it only takes 3% to do so...that will derail the achievement of the threshold.

Furthermore, if Tata and CSN were disposed to sell then they would have done so by now instead of buying more. Why are they holding out? Commentators are saying to achieve offtake agreements. I very much doubt that it would have been necessary to buy more to get their coveted offtake. So if not then why would RIO continue with the bid expecting to have two large and difficult shareholders to deal with and having little hope of achieving 100%?

My take is that RIO are accepting of a large minority stake in such a valuable resource...they know they are getting dirt cheap with existing shareholders having taken most of the risks. So, in conclusion I expect RIO will not achieve 50.1% by 23rd March and will either extend AGAIN, or declare the offer unconditional if they are very close, knowing that people will not want to be locked into a small minority in a company controlled by RIO, Tata and CSN. RIV may even have to be delisted if there are not enough shareholders.

I have retained half my holding having sold the other half two days ago and bought some bargain stocks with the proceeds. I may either accept for the remainder or sell on market if there are good alternative opportunities.

regards
DF