Ann: New Metallurgical Coal Mine , page-6

Hi Bentano.

I may be wrong but yes I would expect them to consolidate within the next few months. I am not sure though if the somewhat dismal market response to the last ann is due to the Japanese situation or because the market expects consolidation.

Jim Cramer from CNBC's 'Mad Money' says the nuclear situation only makes him more bullish on coal. If he is correct then the remaining excuses are 1) consolidation 2) aversion to SA investments. (Feel free to add to this..)

However I also believe that the US still has a lot of bad economic news in the pipeline.. they can only play 'lets pretend' with their statistical data for so long before the truth leaks out. Many big financial institutions are privately aware of this looming crisis but don't voice it publicly; they don't want their investors to start a stampede to the exit. The market was already at a pivot point before the Jap situation, the Jap situation conveniently taking the focus away from the US domestic situation...

A few 'experts' assume there will be a solid rebound if and when the Japs get it all under control- it will likely rebound but I doubt it will be lucky to last longer than a few weeks. it will come back down again; don't mistake the market downturn as being purely a Japanese /Middle East factor. It would have happened anyway, albeit a little slower and subtly.

If my personal expectations are correct, there would still be plenty of time to get into this (or top up in your situation) one a bit cheaper, pre or post consolidation.

Kind regards

CT