PLANET EARTH: CLIMATE CHANGE, ROLE OF AEROSOLS, COAL VS. NUCLEAR, AND THE HEALTH CONCERNS
Robert F. Holub Center for Air Resources Engineering and Science (CARES), Clarkson University, USA
The largest uncertainty in model predictions for global warming lies in nucleation (formation of ultrafine aerosols from volatile/gaseous compounds in air). Nucleation is essential for cloud formation, which is responsible not only for raining but also for how much energy from the sun is reflected back into space.
It has been found that ice ages started (and ended abruptly, in as short as 10 years periods. It is therefore clear that climate changes may occur in a non-linear fashion, and warming can turn into a new ice age.
We will describe it using the notion of "strange attractor", from the chaos theory. Coal powered plants, in addition to greenhouse gases (GHG), produce also airborne pollution (comparable only to pollution from cars), causing about 6% of premature deaths.
Nuclear industry cycle (mining, milling, plant operations) is causing far fewer deaths, however, it's perceived by the public as more dangerous. The future of energy production depends on a (new) honesty from Governments and industry, and on a new maturity from the public. Hopefully, it will be the best result of the present disaster in Japan. We will present some results of our nucleation experiments deep in isolated caves and mines, which are quite unexpected. These findings further increase the uncertainties in our understanding nucleation."
