LYC lynas rare earths limited

mt welds twin sister, page-142

  1. 999 Posts.
    Hi Taurisk

    My starting point for my figures was on page 18 and 19 of lynas' 2007 presentation in Hong Kong



    http://www.lynascorp.com/content/upload/files/Presentations/3rd_International_Rare_Earths_Conference_Hong_Kong_Nov_2007.pdf


    Most of the calculations were done on the back of an envelope after losing a few nights sleep since the announcement

    I didn't have a subscription to metal pages so I base my rare earths prices on Lynas' Mt Weld basket price of $118 kg. Since then someone has kindly calculated Crowns
    basket price at $131 kg

    I googled the rest of the resource elements and based most of my prices from Alibaba at

    http://www.alibaba.com/

    Most are the best figures I could find that were low ball
    and a compareable product

    That Alkane announcement you posted clearly shows that I have overstated the value of the ZrO2 by a factor of 3 but I would only reduce my Calulations by $6,000,000

    whereas the basket price for the Rare Earths has gone from $118 to $131 a kg which is an increase of 11,600t x $13 =
    $150,800,000

    I got the iron ore price from one of ROY announcements
    detail high grade iron ore 68%+ at $140 t

    P2O5 was low ball at $100t. Alot depends on the grade%
    Some posters has stated $10 kg but I went with 10 cents/kg

    Al2O3 at $250 was googled as was TiO2

    Ta2O5 and NbO5 came straight from http://www.alibaba.com/

    One price I am sure I have got wrong is Y2O3.
    I priced it in at $10 kg but if you look at this link it is over $100 a Kg

    http://www.asianmetal.com/partner/peleMountain.html

    I stated a revenue of 2,161,970,000 a year but in hindsight
    it could very well be higher. The two big ticket items are the rare earths and Niobium.
    With the basket price at $131 kg , it would just require a price for niobium of $50 kg to get us over the 2 billion mark.

    I was hopeing that someone would dispute my prices from my original post just so we could come to a more accurate revenue amount for a 1,000,000 t a year operation.

    It would be most interesting Taurisk to see what you come up with

    Tonio
 
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