placement, page-60

  1. 5,949 Posts.
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    Zzzzz,

    1. Glad you agree with me. I did say, if the next half of negotiations are done in the same workmanlike manner I'll be happy and we can't make any assumptions of future sp at the moment based on fundamentals as there is not enough detail

    2. Timelines..yes, my calendar says 5 days, plus a least a few days they would already have spent doing the other stuff. Enough to do a complex deal? M&G jumped in pretty quickly, and depends how advanced CDU was in contract terms and conditions prior to arrival. Hard to believe with copper price ever growing that the other side is going to be foot dragging. Can't see why CDU would be putting obstacles in their own path either. What possible reasons for slowness/delays? I know your view..WM is a dipstick. But what would be a reasonable interpretation...that deals are already on the table, and CDU take time to ratchet numbers in its favour? Could that even remotely be one in your view? Remember, CDU only get one chance at this and are stuck with it for a decade.

    3. blah blah..repetition of issues above

    4. see 3.

    Your point without a number...if its $200M they need CDU have $25 already. If they need $175 and do an IPO for $6, its 29M shares, and a 20% dilution. A pretty good result as HK will assign a higher PE in their market so probably balancing things out. Not the worst outcome, though from WM perspective it means possibly loss of control. Not that I care frankly, as Rocklands is perfectly capable of arguing for its own value if the field work is done diligently - this is one thing I do not have reservation about with CDU.

    Zzzzzz.. numbering paragraphs is traditionally used to indicate new issues or new thoughts.

    Bottom line: I can not see CDU team leaving HK without a deal. They know that this would be a disaster. The other side would know that too. They know western companies like to work to deadlines and so use delay tactics in their favour. I don't like seeing extensions of suspensions anymore than anyone else, but I can see other reasons why, other than WM is a dipstick and always gets it wrong. We will all find out if extension happens, its not the end of the world either...the proof will be in the pudding - though I am sure you'll be predicting a deflated souffle. A month after the deal details come out, no one will be giving a rats if it took 3 weeks or 5 weeks.

    My signature sign off is usually the best strategy. If I may, from your signature I suggest you turn around.
 
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