this $price for oxr now and in the future, page-5

re: this $price for oxr now and in the future - ac Acturtle,

Thank you for the opportunity to explain my target price over the next three years.

My DCF Valuation runs from 2004 through to 2013 and projects cashflows over this period at a NPV discount rate of 10%.

The mine life is always being extended by further revisions to the resource/reserve statements and another is due from Oxiana in the next couple of weeks. Nevertheless, I contnend that looking at the cashflow to 2013 is sufficient to provide a valuation for guideline puposes.

I try to avoid garbage in, garbage out by updating my DCF on a continuous basis, as new information comes to light (i.e. from the company in terms of quarterly reports on production levels, costs etc... and the market in terms of future predictions about copper price, gold price, fx, etc).

It surely goes without saying...the data becomes less reliable the further we look into the future. And so,...if we look ahead to at the cashflows for the next 5 years, we can say with reasonable confidence that the company is worth today on a NPV basis between $1.04-1.07

If we look further out at cashflows to 2009 in order to better understand the company's ability to generate increased cashflow we can see a NPV value around $1.60 per share.

This figure is more relevant to those investors who wish to hold their shares over the medium term.

And to those investors who wish to take a long term view, I suggest the company is worth more than $2 per share on a fully diluted basis.

Having 3 time horizons help me to better appreciate the growth potential of OXR.

Of course, these DCF valuations are not produced and placed on the shelf to gather dust and become totally inaccurate as a later poster to this thread seems to imply by suggesting DCF valuation can readily become irrelevant.

They provide important snap shots in time which can be used to GUIDE investment decisions. Agreed, they should not be the only tool we should use in making investment decisions, but I meet so many people who use practically no tools whatsoever but rely on a gut instinct or "back of a fag packet" calculations.

IMO, these peole are gamblers and not investors.

IN SUMMARY...

1. I hope this has helped you to better understand that my DCF is based over many, many years (but not always the LOM).

2. I use my DCF to derive views of how the market will rate the company in the short, medium and long term.

3. I do not wholly rely on DCF and don't expect it to be 100% accurate ever but, I use it along with other tools to guide my investment decisions.

FINALLY, I very much like OXR and I believe that it has many upside opportunities which we could discuss another time.

I would be interested to hear your views on what will drive the Oxiana sp over the next 12 months?