what is pxs worth?

a simple calc...

Lets say.. 20,000 CF bronhitol users in AU/EU by end of FY13 (assumption: EMA approval granted).

Price: $10,000 AUD (conservative estimate)

Total revenue: 20,000 x $10,000 = 200M

operating costs: $60M (my best guess)

Total earnings = 200M - 60M = 140M

EPS = 140M / 220M (no. shares on issues) = 63c per share

The average PE for biotech (see CSL / COH) is 20 however given the relative size of PXS - lets say PE of 13 is warranted.


Therefore, potential PE by end of 2012 is: 63c x 13 = $8.19 (300% increase from current levels).

This excludes any upside from FDA CF approval and other uses for bronhitol.

Thoughts?

Feel free to add in your working calculations if your views differ from mine.