i can't understand market reaction., page-19

goodaye Occam,
the short answer to your question is, i am not sure how it would work.

I am convinced that RJ has a plan, and it is evident that he has already been discussing his plans/supply sourcing with a number of parties.

So I am just trying to understand where he going - how he plans to satisfy the Conditions Precedent.

Because imho, timing is such a big issue - let alone sourcing the gas.

The announcement i think gives us some clues as to what he has in mind.

Whilst the condition wrt to gas supply is one thing, the condition wrt to providing the CHinese with "Seller obtaining by 31 December 2012 all required authorisations (including for the development and operation of any feedstock fields and LNG facilities) on terms satisfactory to Seller in its sole discretion.." - that's a whole different kettle of fish imho.

But, some things we do know, are found in ICN release. Assuming the comments in the release are bona fide then we can work on:
- ICN needs to provide Buyer with a Reserves Certificate evidencing that ICN can supply 2000pj x 2p.
- that Certication must be made by 31 March 2013
- the reserves subject to that Certification, can come from any field.
- the gas does not need to come from just the one source - because ICN talks about a "gas bank".

SO ICN could source the gas from NWS or from C/B and/or elsewhere.

ICN keeps talking about supplying gas from ICN permits.
But I am not sure how you feel, but I reckon ICN has got buckleys chance of proving up 2000pj of 2P in two years!

SO I am trying to figure out how ICN can provide the certificate (and guarantee supply) by 31 March 2013, and then substitute the 3rd party gas for ICN own gas?

The same goes for the other deadline - getting approvals/authorisations for upstream dev't and LNG facilities - by Dec 2012. It just cannot be achieved by ICN starting from scratch imho!
It must mean that ICN intends to utilise the LNG projects of others - ergo ICN stated discussions with the LNG big boys out of Gladstone.

Occam, what is your interpretation wrt those two conditions - could ICN seperate the fulfilment of each condition independently of each other?

What does RJ have in mind?

cheers