Have been in touch with the threads over at CPL and agree a great company wit great prospects. It is a thermal prospect where as here we are dealing with a coking coal of the highest quality: to use a Hamish Bohannan term "The Silk of Silks".
We have briefly discussed take over here in recentt times and from memory; and from my own perception, the loose consensus was; here and now with the risk of environmentals still to be overcome, $1.80 min. The most likey thought however was a take over over once de - risked and prior to capital development, in this case; north of $2.80
However, I would point out that the guys around here are conservative and tight lipped, so I may be underselling their expectation and I certainly think the outcomes above are conservative. More values, that a bidder would have to come up with, to pry the shares from unwilling sellers.
Think of this, once de-risked and producing up to 4 million tonnes per annum of the best coking coal around with margins of $200 per tonne (Current spot pricing could deliver $250 margins per tonne, due to the expected premium to queensland coking coal prices) and all of this from easily producing targets. Some of the valuations around here have gotten up to $10 per share in our wildest expectations (rarely expressed) while $4 - $6 seems almost too cheap but probably reflects the conservative views on the BTU threads.
No wonder we dont often talk of take over but all seem to accept it as a possibility, as if we can ride this pony till maturity we can live of the divvies
viney
nb I however might not be that clever as I sold out of CPL way too early, so better take what I say with a grain of salt.
nbb I will not make the same mistake with CCC
BTU Price at posting:
$1.23 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
