Hi Magpie ,
Heaps of variables in your questions requiring data which I don't have or is simply too early to determine.
Initially as a broker ( which is the only way I can see them achieving the first gas date ) .
That income would fund an initial drilling program in ATP855p. Assuming that permit has decent reserves , then possibly a farmin by the customer. The trend recently seems to be for customers to purchase equity in the resource and/or the infrastructure.
Of course , ATP626p may suprise on the upside so that may need to factored in.
Unfortunately , further drilling programs are dependent on all these variables so it's probably too early to talk about them. That will also be influenced by the result of the dispute with BPT and BPT's success next door .
As far as uncontracted gas ( rather than stranded ) , MEL , ESG , DTE in NSW. BOW ( even BPT ) in QLD. All either have decent reserves or appear to be well on the way to proving them up. All near infrastucture and have plans in place already to get it to market.
I can't ever see ICN involved in an LNG plant ( except maybe a micro one ) , so once again , a customer or a plant owner buying in to ICN in order to secure supply .
As I said previously , lots of ifs combined with management's track record means that there is a fair bit of risk in ICN but that doesn't mean it won't work.
If , and yes it's a big if , if RJ manages to pull this deal together , I can't see ICN surviving as a company ultimately. I'm sure in that situation , they will be swallowed by someone else.
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